New Video From Don
| | | Don Kaufman here. | We're officially buying crap. | I know that sounds harsh, but look at what's actually moving this market. | XLU: Utilities smashing expected moves - when's the last time you got excited about utilities? | | | | XHB: Home builders with interest rates where they are. | XLI: industrials hitting the upper edge of the expected move. | XLB: materials that nobody's even heard of. | IYH: Healthcare is exploding to the upside even when everyone thought RFK would kill the sector. | And technology? XLK is "massively unchanged." | This isn't healthy rotation. | This is desperation buying. | The valuations on everything good are completely and totally insane, so now people are paying attention to crap because there's nothing left to buy. | Here's the scary part: the correlation between equal weight S&P and market cap weighted just snapped back to 92%. Last week it was down at 30%. | Everyone's celebrating like this is good news. | "The correlation came back!" | No, no, no, no. You don't understand. It means technology has completely stalled. | The equal weight had a huge breach of expected move while regular S&P barely gripped the upside. | When everything's equally weighted, it's crushing the market. When it's cap weighted like normal? Barely moving. | Add in Friday's Christmas Eve volume levels - 625,000 contracts with 10 minutes to close, which is absolutely pathetic… | VIX is dead on the floor, but volatility futures 26 days out are pricing forward VIX at 17.90. | The future is bright and filled with risk. | Get my full weekend breakdown here | Time to pay attention. | To your success, | Don Kaufman | P.S. My earnings flips strategy is crushing it - Tesla at 176%, Google at 135%, batting 50% overall. The key? Play the volatility expansion, take profits fast, don't get cute. The next batch of setups is coming this week. | | |
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