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Good morning: Happy Fourth of July. As we celebrate the holiday, it’s worth pausing to appreciate something quietly remarkable. I’m not talking about the five rights under the First Amendment… Or the fact that I don’t have to house British soldiers in my home. I'd like to pay a subtle tribute to the Great American Grocery Store. Last week, a friend from Switzerland visited, and I sent him to Wegman’s and a Pennsylvania Dutch Market. He walked out raving about American supermarkets… These are not just places to buy food. They are cathedrals of abundance, order, and possibility. In a world where empty shelves and rationing are still the norm in many countries, U.S. grocery stores stand apart, even on their razor-thin margins. Aisles stretch endlessly. Produce glows under perfect light. Boxes are turned just so, labels facing out… not by accident, but by intention. Behind every immaculate shelf is a hidden army. Store managers who notice when the cereal's off by half an inch. Brokers who ensure every product looks its best, because presentation matters. Night crews who restock without fanfare. Buyers who anticipate demand like quiet economists. There is no chaos here, only choreography. You walk in with a list. You leave with options. Choices. Things you didn’t know you wanted, but can afford to try. Strawberries in December. Mangoes from Mexico. Ten kinds of mustard. It’s not just food. It’s proof that the system works more often than it fails. No, it’s not perfect. But it’s stunning when you look. So today, while the fireworks crackle and flags wave, raise a quiet toast to the grocery store. The quiet marvel down the street. The place where America shows off not with noise, but with detail. That’s something to be proud of. What else is on my mind on a Friday? Thing I Think No. 2: Getting Older Is Wild…Last night, while waiting for the fireworks, my phone was playing a cover song by Gus Dapperton: Everything She Wants… written by Wham! After that, a random song came on, continuing the theme, playing a George Michael song called "Fastlove Pt. 1." This song was released in 1996. I remember watching MTV when that music video debuted, and how controversial it was at the time (according to critics) because of the association with casual sex. Here we are… nearly 30 years later. No additional commentary is needed, except for a note… We now have four publicly traded companies associated with hookup culture. And music videos are largely gone. Times change. Not complaining. Just old. Thing I Think No. 3: Being a Swim Parent is Pretty Weird…As I noted, the Padonia Swim Club just dedicated its lap pool to Michael Phelps. He’s currently out west somewhere on a golf course… But back home, every parent is rabid about their kid becoming the next Padonia sensation. Well… take it forward to the competitive events on weekends… It seems that every swim club is very adamant about beating Padonia… like… really, really adamant. Are we the Baddies? Do those other parents think that they’re competing with Michael Phelps? Because my daughter came in dead last… And I assure you… Phelps doesn’t care. Thing I Think No. 4: Maryland’s Government Is AwfulThe state of Maryland is a special sort of dumb. Its leaders have decided that the best way to balance a $3 billion+ budget gap is to hit citizens’ gold stash with a fresh 6% collection tax starting this week. That means every $10,000 you buy in bullion now includes a mandatory $600 “state fee” on top of it. Most brokers have margins in the 2% to 3% range… So… you already know where this is going. Dealers, already running on razor-thin margins, are saying they’re done selling gold, and customers are gearing up for cross-state road trips to PA, VA, or DE. Maryland’s reply? “But, we need the revenue for fairness.” The state of Maryland would require at least twice the amount that the broker does on every gold transaction. That’s dumber than the City of Chicago’s proposals to hammer away at futures contracts (the city making more than the exchange.) Remember, Mayor Johnson wanted to tax $1 to $2 for every contract traded on Chicago-based exchanges (CME, CBOE, etc.) CME makes $0.40 to $0.60 per contract… Naturally, every exchange there has already said they’d leave Chicago if that happened. Here in Maryland, though, gold brokers will just shut down or stop trading. It’s amateur hour. The state will probably pocket less than $3 million annually, because people don’t pay use tax, and businesses will leave anyway. So, congrats, Annapolis. You’ve managed to punish savers, crush in‑state dealers, and lose revenue all at once. It’s true masterclass in hating your own taxpayers. But as always… the pain is the point. Thing I Think No. 5: Or It Could Be the $#*%ING MONEY PRINTINGThe New York Times ran an article today called… Why Beef Prices Have Hit a Record Smaller cattle herds and a decade of headwinds for the industry are expected to push up the cost of burgers and steaks for several years. The article correctly explains the supply constraints of the cattle industry… Pretty much any article that you read will talk about the same reasons over and over again about why beef prices are higher: Smaller herds, higher feed inputs, COVID supply chain disruptions, imports and tariff barriers, market concentration, and persistent demand. What’s not mentioned? The never-ending expansion of the money supply… The relationship between loose monetary policy and cattle feed… Or… anything about monetary policy or fiscal policy. Nothing on QE. Nothing on Zero Interest Rate Policy. Nothing on Stimulus-Enabling Policies. Nothing on Subsidies. Nothing on Inflation Tolerance. Any journalist writing these things should ask ONE QUESTION. Why are prices across all inputs and outputs rising in tandem… and staying there? The answer is monetary policy. It’s as if our central bankers have programmed the media to repeat the same message over and over again, deflecting blame. Beef prices are currently 30% to 50% higher than they were at the start of the pandemic and are at record highs today. That was not just because of supply chains… Further… Monetary dilution trickles down… but first, it already inflated…
Now… It’s finally bumping up the price of your burger. A better headline would have been: "The Fed printed $5 trillion. Why is food more expensive?" I hope you all have a wonderful holiday weekend… I’ll be back tomorrow with my weekly review. Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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