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TJX Stock Price Hits Fresh High, Signals More Highs to Follow
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 8/22/2025.
Key Points
- TJX stock price will trend higher over time, driven by its industry-leading growth and capital return.
- Analyst trends are robust and indicate that this stock is a Buy in 2025.
- Guidance is a leading indicator for this market, but it will likely be outperformed due to the consumer's persistent resilience.
TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) stock movement following the Q2 earnings release paints a mixed picture: some might see it as a signal to sell, but most indicators remain firmly positive. The session featured a notable pre-market surge, a gap up, and an intraday pullback that left prices off their highs.
That midday reversal likely reflects profit-taking—after all, the gap higher was more than 5%, and the company's longer-term gains remain substantial.
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Click here for the names of our three top stocks to own this year (no purchase necessary).Technicians will point to the glaringly bearish candle on heavy volume as a potential overhang. Yet TJX's strong growth, outperformance, robust cash flow, and prudent guidance counterbalance that concern.
On the other hand, analyst sentiment stays bullish: coverage is expanding, upgrades are piling up, and a consensus Buy rating, along with upward earnings revisions, has propelled the stock toward its upper trading range near $165. With Q2 results in hand, these bullish trends look set to continue.
TJX Companies Is Positioned to Deliver in the Back Half of 2025
TJX's Q2 results underscored its resilience in a challenging consumer environment and the strength of its
off-price retail model. Net revenue reached $14.4 billion, up 6.9% year-over-year—160 basis points above consensus and 700 bps ahead of peers like Target.
Comp sales rose 4% overall, with gains across every segment. Among its core Marmaxx divisions, TJMaxx comps grew 3%, HomeGoods 5%, TJX Canada 9%, and International 5%.
Margin improvements also shone through. A robust inventory of fresh products and proven operational efficiencies drove wider gross and operating margins, lower SG&A, and accelerated profit growth.
Including share repurchases, adjusted EPS climbed 15%, or roughly $1.2 billion. The quarter generated $1.8 billion in operating cash flow, and management expects margin strength to persist.
It was the guidance update that really caught investors' attention. Comps for the year remain pegged near 3%, in line with prior estimates, while earnings guidance was raised.
TJX lifted its adjusted EPS outlook to a range starting at $4.52, reflecting a 6% increase over last year. Given its conservative stance, that full-year forecast will likely look modest once final results are in.
The company also built inventory, viewing it as an opportunity to secure quality branded merchandise ahead of the critical fall season.
TJX Delivers Value for Its Shareholders
TJX consistently converts inventory into cash and returns capital to shareholders. In Q2, dividends and share repurchases reduced the average share count by 1.4%.
This disciplined capital return enhances shareholder value while strengthening the balance sheet. Cash declined marginally due to inventory buildup, but current and total assets rose, driving a 13% increase in shareholder equity.
As of mid-August, the dividend yield stands at 1.25%, and this Dividend Aristocrat is poised for double-digit dividend growth. With a payout ratio below 40% of forecasted earnings, the dividend remains secure amid steadily improving profits.
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