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Weiss Advocate

Century Aluminum: A Premier Stock for the Industrial Resurgence

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published 8/14/2025.

Key Points

Supportive U.S. trade policy directly boosts domestic aluminum prices and drives significant profitability for the company.
A landmark investment to restart its South Carolina smelter will significantly increase U.S. production and future revenue capacity.
A stronger financial foundation and a consensus buy rating from market analysts underscore the positive outlook for the stock.

A powerful policy shift in the U.S. industrial sector has created a uniquely profitable environment for domestic manufacturers — and few are better positioned to benefit than Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX). The company's shares have surged more than 60% over the past year, underscoring investor enthusiasm for its strategic advantages.

Although the global aluminum market remains cyclical, several U.S.-specific factors now favor Century Aluminum. For investors seeking direct exposure to the American onshoring trend, the stock offers a compelling set of catalysts that translate into both near-term gains and long-term growth.

The One-Two Punch: Soaring Premiums and a Smelter Restart

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Central to Century's recent outperformance is a shift in its pricing environment, stemming from U.S. trade policy. In June 2025, Section 232 tariffs on aluminum imports were raised to 50%, making foreign metal significantly more expensive and giving domestic producers a clear advantage.

This revision has driven up the U.S. Midwest premium — a regional delivery surcharge added to the global aluminum price. As overseas supply becomes pricier, the Midwest premium has climbed sharply, directly boosting Century's revenues.

Evidence of this impact appears in the company's guidance: for Q3 2025, Century projects Adjusted EBITDA between $115 million and $125 million. Management specifically attributes this strong forecast to elevated domestic premiums, highlighting the policy's tangible effect on profitability.

To capitalize on heightened demand for U.S.-sourced aluminum — especially critical for high-purity primary aluminum used in military aircraft and advanced defense systems — Century is reinvesting aggressively. In August, it announced roughly $50 million to restart idled capacity at its Mt. Holly, South Carolina, smelter. The plan aims to:

Restore full production by mid-2026, the first time since 2015.
Create over 100 new, high-wage jobs and generate an estimated $890 million in annual economic impact for South Carolina.
Boost total U.S. primary aluminum output by nearly 10%.

This strategic investment not only expands Century's revenue potential but also solidifies its role in the domestic supply chain.

How Century Is De-Risking Growth

Growth backed by a strong balance sheet demands proactive financial management. In July 2025, Century refinanced $400 million of senior notes, reducing annual interest costs and extending debt maturities to 2032. This refinancing enhances net income and provides additional flexibility, lowering near-term refinancing risk.

With this stability in place, Century is pursuing a transformative project: constructing a new, low-emission U.S. smelter. Selected for up to $500 million in Department of Energy funding, this facility would mark the first new American smelter in nearly 50 years. Moreover, it would position Century as a leader in low-carbon "green aluminum," which commands a premium among automakers and renewable energy companies.

Analysts share this optimism. The consensus rating on Century's stock is Buy. Following recent developments, B. Riley raised its price target to $25, while Wolfe Research maintains an Outperform rating with a $27 target.

At a forward P/E ratio of roughly 8.14, Century appears attractively valued relative to its projected earnings growth. This valuation stands in contrast to peers that have yet to announce similar domestic restarts, making Century the market's preferred play on reshoring.

A Strategic Position for a New Industrial Era

Century Aluminum presents a clear, direct investment thesis: a U.S. producer thriving on favorable policy, backed by decisive management actions to drive production growth and profitability. Rising domestic premiums, the landmark Mt. Holly restart, and a fortified balance sheet combine to create powerful catalysts.

While aluminum markets remain cyclical, Century's pure-play focus on American production makes it uniquely insulated in today's environment. For investors looking to capitalize on the resurgence of U.S. industry, Century Aluminum stands out as a compelling choice.

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