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BJ's Wholesale Club Pulls Back to Trend: It's Time for an Entry
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 8/25/2025.
Key Points
- BJ's Wholesale Club pulls back following the Q2 release to align the market with long-term trends: it's time to make an entry.
- There are headwinds in 2025, but this company is building leverage for when consumer trends shift.
- Analysts are bullish on this stock and see it advancing by double-digits from critical support levels.
BJ’s Wholesale Club’s (NYSE: BJ) price action in late August isn't bullish, but it's positive for investors. The company's results were tepid relative to analysts' consensus—leaving the market wanting more—but they reinforce a robust long-term outlook.
While consumer headwinds weigh on the business today, they also accelerate new store openings and deepen market penetration, setting the stage for amplified long-term growth once conditions improve.
Trump's Exec Order #14154 could be a "Millionaire-Maker" (Ad)
Former Presidential Advisor, Jim Rickards, says Trump could "rewire our economy and hand millions of Americans a chance at true financial independence in the months ahead."
We recently sat down with Rickards to capture all the key details on tape.
The key takeaway: this retail company is growing, creating investor value, and trading at deep-value levels—an opportunity for a trend-following entry.
BJ’s price action has been trending higher since 2020, when it gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic. The market has repeatedly reaffirmed this uptrend, and as calendar Q3 2025 draws to a close, the stock is trading near a critical support level.
That level corresponds with the uptrend line and, given positive analyst sentiment trends, is unlikely to break. Following the FQ2 release and guidance update—which prompted several price-target reductions—the net result remains bullish. MarketBeat data reveals that coverage increased over the past three quarters, consensus sentiment rose from Hold to Moderate Buy, and revisions align with the consensus price target. That target implies a 20% upside from the current level—and may even be conservative.
BJ’s Wholesale Reaffirms Guidance: Leans Into Growth Strategy
BJ’s Wholesale delivered a solid quarter: revenue rose 3.3%, narrowly trailing larger rival Walmart (NYSE: WMT). Although revenue missed consensus, offsetting factors include a sharp drop in fuel prices—subtracting over 200 basis points from comps. Excluding fuel, comps rose 2.3%, driven by a 9% increase in membership fees and higher store traffic.
Digital sales—a key growth pillar—jumped 34%, bolstering margin performance.
Despite higher SG&A—driven partly by accelerated store openings—the company widened both gross and operating margins, and these costs are expected to normalize over time.
As a result, operating income rose 6.3%, net income grew 3.9%, and adjusted EPS climbed 4.6%, outperforming top-line growth by over 100 basis points and beating consensus by 450 basis points.
The company reaffirmed its revenue growth targets and raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance by $0.06 at the midpoint—now in line with consensus. Given current trends, this guidance may prove conservative.
Consumers remain price-conscious, seeking value, quality, and longevity in their purchases.
BJ’s Builds Value for Its Investors
BJ’s Wholesale provides value for its investors and shoppers alike.
At the end of Q2, the balance sheet featured higher cash balances, increased current and total assets, stable liabilities, and rising equity.
Long-term debt stands at less than 0.2x equity, reflecting low leverage and robust cash flow.
Strong cash flow and low leverage also support significant share repurchases.
In Q2, the buyback reduced shares outstanding by roughly 1%, and this pace is likely to continue given the remaining authorization and cash flow outlook.
The share repurchase program includes up to $950 million in shares, equivalent to roughly 23 more quarters at the current run rate.
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