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| Martin D. Weiss, PhD |
BJ's Wholesale Club Pulls Back to Trend: It's Time for an Entry
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 8/25/2025.
Key Points
- BJ's Wholesale Club pulls back following the Q2 release to align the market with long-term trends: it's time to make an entry.
- There are headwinds in 2025, but this company is building leverage for when consumer trends shift.
- Analysts are bullish on this stock and see it advancing by double-digits from critical support levels.
BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) saw its share price dip in late August. While this movement may not appear bullish at first glance, it actually underscores a solid long-term outlook. The company's recent results, though modest compared with analysts' expectations, align with a trajectory for sustained growth.
Current consumer headwinds present near-term challenges but are simultaneously driving faster store expansion and deeper market penetration—factors poised to fuel growth once these headwinds ease.
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The key takeaway is that this retail standout is steadily building value for investors and is trading at deep-value levels, setting up an attractive trend-following entry.
Since 2020, BJ's share price has been trending higher, propelled by strong performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. As Q3 2025 winds down, shares are hovering near a critical support level along the uptrend line—a level unlikely to break given prevailing analyst sentiment.
Following its FQ2 release and guidance update, several price targets were trimmed, yet the overall outlook remains constructive. MarketBeat data shows that analyst coverage has broadened over the past three quarters, sentiment has improved from Hold to Moderate Buy, and the consensus price target implies roughly 20% upside from current levels—a figure that may prove conservative.
BJ's Wholesale Reaffirms Guidance and Leans Into Growth
In FQ2, BJ's delivered 3.3% revenue growth, falling slightly short of larger rival Walmart (NYSE: WMT). A roughly 200-basis-point drag from lower fuel prices weighed on comps, but on a fuel-excluded basis, comp sales rose 2.3%, driven by a 9% increase in fees and higher store traffic.
Digital sales, a key growth pillar, surged 34%, bolstering margin expansion. Despite increased SG&A expenses from accelerated store openings—a long-term earnings driver—the company widened both gross and operating margins.
As a result, operating income climbed 6.3%, net income rose 3.9%, and adjusted EPS increased 4.6%, outpacing top-line growth by over 100 basis points and exceeding consensus by 450 basis points.
Management reaffirmed its full-year revenue targets and raised its adjusted EPS forecast by $0.06 at the midpoint, aligning guidance with consensus estimates—an indication of potential upside given current trends.
Building Long-Term Value for Investors
BJ's Wholesale continues to deliver value for customers and shareholders. At the close of Q2, the balance sheet featured higher cash balances and total assets, steady liabilities, and growing equity. Leverage remains low, with long-term debt under 0.2x equity, supported by robust cash flow.
This strong cash position and low leverage fund a meaningful share repurchase program. In Q2, buybacks reduced the share count by about 1%, and the company still has authorization to repurchase up to $950 million—enough to sustain buybacks for approximately 23 quarters at the current pace.
Elbit Systems Jumps on Record Earnings and a $1.6B Contract
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published 8/15/2025.
Key Points
- A new landmark European contract contributes significantly to the company's record-setting order backlog, ensuring strong future revenue visibility.
- The company delivered exceptional quarterly results that beat analyst expectations, demonstrating accelerating profitability and impressive operational efficiency.
- Management signaled strong confidence in sustained financial health by announcing a substantial increase in its quarterly dividend payment to shareholders.
A landmark European contract paired with a blockbuster earnings report has thrust Elbit Systems (NASDAQ: ESLT) into the spotlight, validating its strategy and underscoring its robust financial health.
The defense-sector technology firm is transforming heightened global demand into strong financial results and shareholder value, demonstrating powerful momentum.
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Key highlights:
- Powerful Catalysts: Elbit's stock rose over 5% on August 13 after securing a $1.635 billion European contract and reporting second-quarter earnings well above forecasts.
- Exceptional Earnings: Non-GAAP EPS of $3.23 beat the $2.57 consensus while revenue jumped 21% year-over-year to $1.97 billion.
- Record Backlog: Orders on the books swelled to $23.8 billion, offering multi-year visibility on future revenue.
- Shareholder Rewards: The board boosted the quarterly dividend by 25% to $0.75 per share, signaling confidence in sustained cash flow.
Two Catalysts, One Strong Message
The first catalyst was a five-year, $1.635 billion contract with an unnamed European nation, elevating Elbit from a supplier of standalone products to a prime systems integrator. In this role, the company integrates Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), command-and-control software, and electronic warfare suites into a cohesive defense network—an entrenched, higher-value position.
The second catalyst was a stellar Q2 2025 earnings release. Revenue reached $1.97 billion (up 21% year-over-year) and non-GAAP EPS surged 55% to $3.23, comfortably beating the $2.57 estimate. This earnings beat demonstrates that Elbit not only wins contracts but also executes them efficiently and profitably.
From Backlog to Balance Sheet
Elbit's order backlog now stands at a record $23.8 billion, equating to over 3.1 times last twelve months' revenue. This backlog provides several years of secured revenue and, with 68% sourced from international customers, illustrates a well-diversified global footprint.
Growth is broad-based across its core segments:
- Land Systems: Revenue +45% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for ammunition and advanced munitions.
- C4I and Cyber: Revenue +21%, fueled by modern command, control, and communications systems.
- ISTAR and EW: Revenue +15%, reflecting growing need for intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare solutions.
Prudent financial management shines through a Non-GAAP operating margin of 8.9% (up from 8.0% a year ago) and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. A May share offering further strengthened the balance sheet, funding production expansion.
While a P/E ratio near 58 implies a premium valuation, it's justified by the company's exceptional growth trajectory and the recent 25% dividend increase that underscores management's confidence in ongoing profitability.
Why Elbit's Growth Story Has Room to Run
Elbit Systems is well positioned to benefit from rising defense budgets worldwide. Its "glocal" model—operating through local subsidiaries under a global umbrella—is a key advantage. For example, Elbit Systems of America (ESA) functions as a U.S. entity deeply integrated into the American defense ecosystem, helping to mitigate geopolitical risk and earn local trust.
The combination of a massive order book, accelerating profitability, and a clear strategic vision presents a compelling case for investors. These recent catalysts do more than provide a one-time boost—they validate a high-performance business model operating in a high-demand sector.
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