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Deere's Sell-Off Could Be a Long-Term Buying Chance
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 8/14/2025.
Key Points
- Deere stock falls over 8% after guidance cut citing tariffs, soft demand, and weak crop prices.
- Management reduced inventories sharply, setting up a supply boost if demand rebounds.
- Shares trade near technical support, offering a potential entry for long-term investors.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) shares plunged after lowering its full-year outlook, citing tariff uncertainty, cautious customer spending, and softer crop prices. The stock slid over 8% in midday trading on Aug. 14 as investors punished companies forecasting a slowdown.
The industrial sector has been one of the market's top performers. Before the earnings report, DE had outpaced the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLI), underscoring its role as a bellwether.
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Although headline results topped consensus—third-quarter revenue of $15.2 billion versus $14.8 billion expected, and EPS of $10.02 versus $9.57—they weren't enough to overcome the negative guidance reaction.
Guidance Cut Hits All Segments
Deere forecasts weakness across all business units and regions for the rest of the year, with tariffs cited as a key drag. As a company with significant global exposure, Deere expects reciprocal duties in Europe and India and higher steel costs to shave roughly $700 million off pretax results, about half of which will hit in the current quarter.
Chief Financial Officer Josh Jepsen told analysts, "We've built higher steel costs and reciprocal tariffs into our guidance, which could weigh more heavily if trade tensions escalate."
The company is also contending with softer equipment demand. Deere has cut inventories of large tractors by 45%, small tractors by 30%, and earthmoving units by 25%–30%. Meanwhile, robust demand for used equipment continues to undercut new-unit sales.
Declining crop prices added further pressure. Chief Executive Officer John May noted, "Corn, wheat and soybean prices are at multi-year lows, which historically leads farmers to defer purchases of new equipment."
Cautious Guidance Could Be Overly Conservative
Deere's forecasts are traditionally conservative, and management emphasized that its tariff and crop-price assumptions are subject to change. That reminder—of guidance as a directional signal rather than a guarantee—comes amid broader market weakness triggered by hotter-than-expected inflation data.
Jepsen stressed that the company's operational discipline remains intact: "Our structural improvements and cost controls position us well for when demand returns."
Lower inventories may even create a supply tailwind if end-market demand recovers, setting the stage for potential upside surprises later in the fiscal year.
Is the sell-off overdone? Not necessarily. Selling momentum could persist in the short term, and analysts have yet to update their forecasts for DE stock.
An Attractive Valuation and Technical Outlook
Trading at roughly 23 times trailing earnings and 26 times forward earnings, DE stock commands a premium to its history but remains in line with the broader sector. The recent decline has pushed shares below their 50-day simple moving average, a level that had provided support for months.
Historical precedent suggests the stock could dip further. In late March and early April, DE shares fell about 14% from a similar level. Technical indicators, such as the MACD crossing below its signal line, hint at continued near-term weakness.
A comparable 14% decline would target around $442, near prior support. However, the stock went on to rally sharply from that point.
The long-term buy-and-hold case for Deere remains intact, so any further pullback could offer a compelling entry point for patient investors.
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