Five Things I Think I Think...This was from Friday, but only went out to paid members by accident...
EDITOR’S NOTE: Apologies to readers. This went out on Friday (and is written from Friday’s perspective. However, it includes market commentary that I think you’ll find important, especially given that we had moved to yellow momentum on Wednesday and experienced stress in banking reserves… Anyway… thanks for taking the time for the extra letter…)
Dear Fellow Traveler: My daughter’s home sick today… my wife has a root canal planned… and my dog is dealing with allergies… Whoosh… that’s a lot. All while we try to manage a market that is moving sideways… (Had a nice overnight short on Block (XYZ) by just looking at moving averages… More on that to come… All that said… I might be going to this Under-8 soccer game alone to coach tomorrow, trying to pull the Dolphins out of a 0-3 hole. We got close last weekend, until the ringers rolled in… I think one of the things I have greatly enjoyed about this process is watching kids become more confident despite losing. They’re shrugging it off and working on fundamentals. They’re pushing themselves to get better, and they’re not getting emotional about it at all… I wish I could be like that… As investors and traders, it’s the same thing. We can’t beat ourselves up over losses. We must remain disciplined, follow our rules, and ensure that we’re prepared for anything in any environment. If you find yourself struggling, consider tightening your stops, turning your attention to more conservative strategies, or making more trades (not more concentrated ones) that are smaller in scope and scale to take advantage of the law of numbers. As we now move into Yellow territory in terms of momentum, I recommend that you also follow our Six Rules for Negative Momentum should this market continue to experience pressure on liquidity. It’s uncertain where we are at the moment… But we must always be prepared… What else do I think? 2. Every New Financial Innovation Is Just Borrowing With New, Extra StepsI was reading about financial changes at the ETF level, specifically the integration of more leverage into passive funds in the future. Basically, single stocks, more leverage, more risk, more… borrowing… In finance, we’ve created 47 ways to say “loan” without saying loan.
These things are like calling insomnia ‘maximizing your day.’ This world is built on debt… Plan accordingly… 3. Is Trading Turning Into Astrology for Men?A friend looked at my hand the other day after I cut it… and the first thing they said was that my two lines in it looked like the 20-50 day crossover on a chart… I’ve attached this picture to show you why I spit out my drink when he said it…
Because some people are just seeing charts and lines and constellations everywhere… because they’re living and breathing the market too much… This feels like astrology… Mercury in retrograde? That’s why your ex texted. SOFR above Fed Funds? That’s why stocks crashed. Both involve staring at charts, finding patterns that aren’t there, and confidently predicting the future based on the movement of distant objects nobody understands. At least astrology girls admit it’s vibes-based. 4. Everyone’s “Passionate” About Things Nobody’s Passionate AboutWhat the hell is going on with LinkedIn confessionals… People saying things like… “I’m passionate about supply chain optimization.” No, you’re not. “I’m passionate about accounts receivable.” Come o,n man… You’re passionate about getting paid and going home. More and more… LinkedIn posts are looking and reading like this… (Note: This is satire) 🚀 Passionate about accounts receivable optimization 🚀 After 10 years in the finance grind, I finally found my TRUE calling: invoice processing. Last night I stayed up until 3 a.m. reconciling variances. Not because I had to. Because I WANTED to. My therapist says this is “concerning.” I say it’s DEDICATION. I’m currently building a community of professionals who are genuinely excited about backend database architecture. If you’re not passionate about your spreadsheets, are you even living? Are you in?!? #PassionForPayables #LivingMyBestExcelLife #DisruptTheGeneralLedger #AccountingIsLife Agree? Thoughts? It’s a wild time… 5. The AI trade isn’t over… at all…This morning, I read that Accenture plans to cut any workforce that they can’t upskill in AI. They’re gonna end up not needing anyone who doesn’t know how to prompt… The next 36 months will be fascinating as AI takes a deeper hold in corporate America. People often deny the power and speed of innovation, but we’re already seeing a significant disconnect between AI investment and the underlying economy. Goldman Sachs puts the AI basket of stocks at $29 trillion… All while the U.S. economy sits around $31 trillion. What do you think will happen… People invested in and trading AI will benefit from the inevitable need by the Federal Reserve to provide adequate support to the underlying economy. More capital will continue to slosh into the top names - and the K-shaped recoveries will be even more manic than the ones we saw in 2008, 2020, and 2025 (meaning the investment class wins at the expense of everyone else). I have built an education platform centered entirely around a single stock on the market. This mastermind class centers entirely around a single name - the backbone of the AI trade - and teaches traders about all of the big ticket trends in both the industry but also how things like liquidity, momentum, insider buying, policy, and more impact the top names on the S&P 500. Check it out tonight or over the weekend. Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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