(And Why Market Skew Made This a No-Brainer)
| | Don Kaufman here. | I was staring at two butterflies this morning and the market wanted to charge me $1.15 for a call butterfly that I could get for 35 cents on the put side. | Same damn trade. | This is exactly why most traders lose money - they don't understand how skew is robbing them blind. | Here's what happened. | We were in one of those "slop fest" days where the S&P was basically dead flat, down a whopping 9 handles. | Perfect butterfly weather, right?… | | 🗂️ The Setup Box – NVDA Breakout Squeeze | | NVDA is sitting right below all-time highs. My position is structured for a 3-day breakout trade. | The thesis is simple: if we touch or break the highs, algos pile in, call buying rips, and we squeeze higher. | Target levels are around 185+, with weekly calls about $2 OTM likely to go ITM if the squeeze triggers. The risk is if NVDA stalls below highs – no breakout, no momentum. | |
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| | 🔥 Flow/Internals Glance – PATH & AI Mania | UiPath (PATH) exploded +15% on nothing more than saying the word "Nvidia" in a collaboration headline. | Options sizzle index 26x normal, 50% volume executed at market (pure retail chasing). Overwhelming call-buying pressure, volume skewed to the ask/above. This is retail FOMO at its purest form, a "fund fest." | |
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| | 📈 Levels & Triggers – META, TSLA, NVDA | 📌 META | Already broke below expected move last week. If 720 cracks this week, stock is wide open to 700. Current move being amplified by order flow and partnership headlines (CoreWeave compute).
| 📌 TSLA | EV tax credit of $7,500 expires Sept 30. Orders surged into Q3, deliveries intentionally deferred to Q4. Near-term: expect messy reaction to deliveries, massive implied volatility pricing like earnings.
| 📌 NVDA | |
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