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Hey there, Garrett here. |
Markets hit all-time highs today on rate cut euphoria. Dow jumped 500 points. Everyone's positioning like it's free money season. |
But I just spent the morning digging through SEC Form 4 filings, and the smart money is telling a completely different story. |
Corporate insiders are selling. Hard. |
While retail traders load up on calls, the people who actually run these companies are heading for the exits. The insider buying-to-selling ratio has collapsed. |
When CEOs Don't Believe Their Own Rally |
Here's my simple rule: If the insiders aren't buying, why are you? |
These executives see quarterly numbers before anyone else. If they genuinely believed the Fed pivot would boost their stocks, they'd be buying hand over fist right now. Instead, we're seeing massive selloffs - $520 million in Smithfield alone. |
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This isn't normal profit-taking. This is systematic positioning away from the euphoria. |
The Pattern That Never Lies |
I've tracked insider buying through every major cycle. Executives call the bottom of every financial crisis because they know when policy becomes accommodative: |
2009: Massive buying before QE1 2016: Surge ahead of China's stimulus Late 2018: Record purchases before Fed's QE4 pivot COVID: Executives loaded up during trillion-dollar money drop April 2024: Buying explosion when Treasury shifted accommodative
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Every time, perfect positioning because they had advance knowledge. |
But right now? Radio silence. |
What They're Seeing That Markets Aren't |
My wife packed our kitchen this morning (we're closing on our house at noon), and I'm down to Celsius energy drinks. But I'd rather burn my skin with caffeine than miss what's happening in these filings. |
Executives aren't buying this narrative because cutting rates into 6.2% electricity inflation and 14% natural gas spikes isn't victory. |
They're watching input costs explode while the Fed prepares to add fuel to the fire. That's stagflation setup, not margin expansion. |
April had record insider buying synchronized with institutions loading TQQQ. Smart money positioned because they knew policy shifts were coming. |
That coordination is completely absent now. |
Why This Time Feels Different |
Usually you see insider accumulation weeks before Fed pivots. Executives position ahead because they understand transmission mechanisms. |
We're days away from the September meeting, and buying patterns suggest these guys expect problems, not profits. |
Maybe they're worried about wage-price spirals. Maybe they understand that cutting rates while adding a trillion in debt every hundred days creates more problems than it solves. |
Or maybe they remember what happened every time the Fed tried engineering soft landings while structural inflation persisted. |
The Bottom Line |
Markets can rally on rate cut hopes. But when the people running these companies are selling into euphoria, somebody's about to learn an expensive lesson. |
I'll keep trading momentum names and catalyst plays. But macro-wise, I'm watching for that insider buying spike that signals real accommodation. |
Until then, I'm treating this rally like what it probably is: a setup before reality hits. |
When $520 million in insider selling meets rate cut euphoria, somebody's about to get schooled. Make sure it's not you. |
Want to see how this plays out in real-time? |
Join me tomorrow at 8:45 AM ET for our free morning livestream. |
We'll dig into whatever chaos the Fed delivers and find the trades that actually matter. |
No fluff, no theory - just what's moving and why it matters to your money. |
Stay Positive, |
Garrett Baldwin |
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