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| | | Don Kaufman here. | Market's basically unchanged for the entire week. You're thinking "great, no drama." | You're dead wrong. | Here's what everyone's missing while they're celebrating this "calm" Fed reaction... | We're sitting on the largest gamma risk in market history. Not exaggerating. Trillions of dollars in options expiring Friday morning AND afternoon. | But here's the kicker that should make your stomach drop: | The market had a $94 expected move this week. We're unchanged. They're still pricing in $74 of movement. | Think about that. Three days passed. Fed "risk" is supposedly over. And options haven't decayed because the real violence hasn't even started yet. | What's coming that has market makers sweating: | • Tomorrow's $51 expected move - Fed fallout they pushed to Thursday
• Triple witching Friday during a Fed week (this combination creates "dislocations of risk" that can "rip" through the market)
• The advanced decline line warning - today we had 65 advancers while S&P was down 50 points (translation: they could sell the other 65 stocks and "absolutely annihilate" the market) | Here's the part that changes everything: | Just two stocks - NVIDIA and Broadcom - are enough to pull the entire marketplace under. The financials are up 1% and it doesn't even matter anymore. | When gamma risk grows "in a parabolic state" as we approach Friday's expiration, market makers have to hedge off massive directional risk. | Translation: "Big waves are gonna hit this marketplace in the next 24 to 48 hours. There's no question about that." | The setup I'm tracking has specific dollar strength triggers, tech rotation patterns, and one advanced decline line signal that tells us exactly when "crap can get real in a hurry." | But the timing window is narrow. The positioning has to be precise. | Watch the full breakdown here - I'm covering the specific trades tomorrow live, but you need to understand the risk mechanics happening RIGHT NOW. | Don't be the person holding positions based on "the Fed was dovish" while ignoring the largest options expiration in history hitting in 48 hours. | WATCH: Why This Week's "Calm" is Actually the Setup for Major Violence | To your success, | Don Kaufman | | | | | |
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