McDonald's Will Win the Value Meal War (And We'll Thank Them For It)McDonald's is about to eat everyone's lunch... as it all comes down to marketing...
Are you in? We’re running it back at 50% off…
Dear Fellow Traveler, In an episode of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Frank Reynolds (Danny DeVito) convinces Mac (Rob McElhenney) to paint his chair with toxic gold spray paint to give the illusion it's been dipped in gold. Realizing he's been duped, Mac (whose full name is Ronald McDonald) screams: "Nobody is stupid enough to think your chair was dipped in gold, Frank! Why am I helping you?"  "Because I'm manipulating you," Frank replies. "That's the way I get people to do things for me." "Really?" Mac asks. "That's awesome. How did you do that?" "If you make my chair look really nice," Frank says, "I will tell you." Mac smiles enthusiastically and screams, "Deal!" before painting the chair again... See how easy that was? Well, get ready, America. You're about to get manipulated. But instead of this being about the Golden Chair, it's about the Golden Arches. The Value War That Isn'tFox Business can’t see what’s really happening when they talk about Fast Food wars… The story goes that… McDonald's has brought back "Extra Value Meals" for the first time since 2019. Burger King, IHOP, and Jack in the Box are now scrambling to match with their own value deals. Wall Street's worried about margin compression across these companies... Analysts faint over sustainability…. Everyone's asking who will win the next fast-food price war. I'll tell you who will win… McDonald's Corporation (MCD). They always win. And it’s the same cheat code every time… We're about to watch them gaslight America into believing a $5 meal deal is the greatest act of corporate generosity since Andrew Carnegie built libraries. Listen closely and read the marketing language McDonald's uses over the next few months as this whole price war accelerates... It's never just a "Value Meal." It's an "EXTRA Value Meal."
I used to write corporate marketing and lobby in Washington… Trust me… every word is focus-grouped. Every message is tested. Every campaign is designed to make you feel like McDonald's is doing you a favor by letting you pay them money. How McDonald's WinsWhile competitors slash prices desperately, McDonald's plays a different game… It’s a simple four-point focus…
The genius isn't the price. It's making Americans think the price is genius. McDonald's has done this before. Here are three examples:
Every "value" initiative followed the same pattern… It starts with a crisis… Then McDonald’s "listens to customers…" They next engage in aggressive promotion. They fuel competitors’ destruction. After they take market share, they quietly increase prices… And then? Record profits! It’s All Part of the PlanThis isn't about value. It's about the "Accelerating the Arches" strategy. The company wants to expand to 50,000 locations by 2027. They’re going to increase franchise fees because they can. They want to push digital ordering because it boosts margins. They want to access customer data through the McDonald’s App… The $5 meal isn't the product. America’s food habit is the product. Customer data is the product. The belief that McDonald's cares about value is the product.
Watch what happens next… I predict that McDonald's will:
Imagine an ad where a father is overworked and his daughter is stressed about college applications. They go to McDonald’s for a break; she smiles and eats a fry. He smiles, reflecting that she’s all grown up and on her way to college. I could write this advertisement in my sleep… because it speaks to “what really matters” in life… it just so happens that this moment is happening when you’re eating a Value Meal…
They’ll tell you in less than 160 characters that you deserve a break. And rather than drinking an $11 bottle of red wine… how about the comfort of a double cheeseburger? Just like when you were a kid… Or consider another ad where a father was a franchisee and passed the restaurant on to his son. We’ll “remember” the 1980s… and we’ll remember that McDonald’s hasn’t changed… just society has… it’s gotten faster… and harder… and louder… But there’s always a hamburger waiting for you at this location just down the block. Don’t think about your mother’s cooking. Think about the Chicken Nuggets and the Quarter Pounder, you nostalgic American.
This is obvious. Watch all the articles that come out of nowhere that reflect on why McDonald’s creates nostalgia and value. It’s okay for a major social influencer to eat a Big Mac in a video advertisement (and then spit it out when the camera cuts…). I’d find out which Hollywood celebrity is overleveraged in the real estate market, just lost a fortune producing a bad movie, and needs money. Then, I’d hire him or here to really lean into how even though they got famous, they never stopped loving McDonald’s…
“You had concerns… we listened…” That’s how an advertisement will likely start. And I’m telling you, this language is literally catnip for the consumer. You’re addressing THEIR concerns. This works over and over and over again. It creates “trust…” Even if they took the information and then ran it through focus groups to find the optimal message that connects with the McDonald’s Super User… They need to get that guy who eats there six times a month to eat there ten times a month. Super Users keep the lights on… But… they’ll take the new or existing customer that can boost their revenue streams… And by the time the messaging is done… I’ll tell you what they’ll accomplish… They'll make you feel smart for choosing McDonald's. They'll make you feel like you're winning and saving by eating there. They’ll tell you that you’re doing a great job painting their chair gold... When I'd Actually WorryThis marketing is how they succeed. There’s no panic here. There’s just pure corporate influence. The only time I'd worry about McDonald's is if they resorted to late-night infomercial tactics… The ad might sound like this… and if it does… the economy is in real trouble…
You might think that’s insane… But… DoorDash and Klarna are enabling the Buy Now, Pay Later button on fast food… And the messaging will only become more aggressive as competitors attempt to keep pace with McDonald’s dominance… When I think about corporate marketing, I always go back to John Carpenter’s great film, “They Live”- a science fiction/horror/satire film about consumerism and power in America. This scene, featuring Rowdy Roddy Piper, is genius…  As Jay Bauman at Red Letter Media once said about They Live, “It’s one of those movies that people say now… this movie is more relevant now than when it was made. And people always say that about random movies that have some political or social commentary or satire… And it’s not true. It’s not more relevant now. It’s equally relevant because nothing changes.” [Emphasis, mine…] When to Buy and Sell MCD StockWhen McDonald's starts selling burgers like Billy Mays sold OxiClean, that's when you know they're desperate. That’s when you dump the stock… But they'll never need to. Because they're masters at making you think you're getting a deal while they're getting your loyalty, data, and lifetime value. Wall Street sees a price war. I see McDonald's doing what McDonald's always does…. They’re winning through superior marketing manipulation disguised as value. They're not competing on price. They're competing on perception. Buy McDonald’s stock. Own it forever. Double down if it falls 50% because of “the economy…” It's one of those companies that will never be defeated because it understands something fundamental… Americans don't want cheap food. They want to feel smart and savvy about buying food. McDonald's makes them feel like geniuses for buying a $5 meal that costs $2 to make. Same as it ever was… Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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