The Bond Crisis Triggered Our Biggest Trade Signal in Months

Don here...

Two minutes into the trading week, we hit the SPX expected move target of $86 down.

We hit the lower edge of the expected move in the first 120 seconds of trading.

That's not normal. That's a complete probability shift.

In today's Live Trading Room session, you witnessed:

The bond crisis nobody saw coming—France, UK, and Netherlands getting hammered as the 30-year treasury spiked to levels not seen since 2005
Why our TLT put spread is now positioned perfectly—This isn't a 55% gain trade; it's a hold-until-expiration grand slam setup
The Nvidia breakdown that could change everything—Chinese tech firms like DeepSeek abandoning Nvidia GPUs for Huawei, while Taiwan Semiconductor loses critical manufacturing waivers
Why Palantir at $150 is the bellwether to watch—More puts trading than calls for the first time in months, signaling institutional hedging
The rotation into "crap sectors" that screams danger—When money managers start buying energy and healthcare after avoiding them all year, they're gasping for alpha

The VIX hit nearly 20 and hasn't collapsed despite the market bouncing back. That's not normal recovery behavior—that's institutions hedging for what comes next.

Most traders see a dip-buying opportunity. I see a market that just broke below 6450 with acceleration that opens the door to 6250.

This isn't the beginning of the end, but it's definitely the end of the beginning. When you hit expected move levels in the first minutes of a trading week, probabilities shift dramatically.

The bond crisis is real.

The Nvidia breakdown is structural.

And we're positioned exactly where we need to be.

→ Watch the complete breakdown here

To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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