|
|
|
Hey there, it's Blake. |
The jobs report looks decent on paper. 22,000 new jobs. Unemployment ticking up slightly. Nothing catastrophic. |
But dig deeper and you'll find the most misleading employment data since 2009. |
Here's what they're not telling you: If you sell something on eBay for over $699, you get a 1099. |
Congratulations - you're now "employed" according to the household survey. |
Sell a few items on Facebook Marketplace? Employed.
Do some TaskRabbit gigs? Employed.
Drive for Uber twice a month? Employed. |
This isn't sustainable employment - it's survival economics being counted as job growth. |
The Math Doesn't Add Up |
We have 7.38 million people without jobs and 7.2 million job openings. The headlines love this number because it sounds balanced. |
It's not. |
Not every unemployed person can become a brain surgeon just because there's an opening. Brandon and I were joking about this - can he perform surgery with his busted shoulder? Can I rocket science my way into NASA? |
The skills mismatch is massive. These "job openings" are largely for specialized positions that don't match the available workforce. |
Here's What's Actually Happening |
Look at the numbers they bury in the fine print: |
The number of people "marginally attached" to the workforce - those who want jobs but have given up looking - just hit the highest level since 2021. We're talking about people who've completely stopped trying to find work. |
This is the highest number since 2009. |
Let that sink in. We haven't seen this level of workforce discouragement since the financial crisis. |
The Gig Economy Smokescreen |
The household survey counts anyone who made money as "employed." Sell your old bike on KSL? You're employed. Clean someone's house through an app? You're employed. |
This isn't job creation - it's people liquidating assets and doing survival gigs to pay bills. |
But the Bureau of Labor Statistics treats a one-time eBay sale the same as a full-time manufacturing job with benefits. |
The Fed is cutting rates based on employment data that's being artificially inflated by desperation economics disguised as entrepreneurship. |
Powell already knew these numbers before his last speech. He said the labor market was making him nervous. Now you know why. |
When you strip away the gig economy padding, we're looking at employment weakness that screams recession, not the "soft landing" everyone's hoping for. |
The Bond Market Sees Through It |
Wonder why bonds rallied hard on a "decent" jobs report? The bond market isn't buying the headline numbers. Smart money sees the underlying weakness. |
We're pricing in multiple rate cuts not because the economy is strong enough to handle them, but because employment is weak enough to require them. |
I'm not going to give you some sexy momentum trade here. This employment deception sets up defensive plays that'll save your portfolio when reality hits. |
TLT Call Spreads (When I Get My Price) |
|
|
|
Bond futures gapped up hard on this "good" jobs report. I'm waiting for a pullback to the 96-58 area to enter call spreads. The employment data is weaker than headlines suggest - bonds are pricing this in correctly. |
Target: 28-day call spreads around the 89.50/91.50 strikes when volatility skew cooperates. (You can follow my plays in the TheoTrade Chat Room) |
Consumer Staples on Pullbacks |
|
|
|
When people realize they're not actually "employed," they'll stop spending on discretionary items. Essential spending continues. |
I'm watching Kroger for a drop to $66-67. If I can sell puts at 30-35 delta for 2.5%+ monthly premium, I'll take that all day. That gives me a 6-10% safety net while getting paid to wait. |
What I'm NOT Doing |
Buying any "job growth" plays Betting on consumer discretionary recovery Chasing anything dependent on employment strength
|
The Real Trade Here |
The real play isn't stocks - it's positioning for when this employment house of cards collapses. We're probably one negative print away from recession confirmation. |
Maybe next month. |
I'd rather collect 2-3% monthly selling puts on quality defensive names than chase upside in a market built on statistical manipulation. |
When the employment data gets honest, I want to be positioned for what comes next, not caught holding hope. |
Have a great day! |
Blake Young |
|
|
|
ICYMI | This Former TD Ameritrade Executive Just Exposed Wall Street's Biggest Secret | "Shadow Clocks" - The Hidden Timers That Print Money While You Sleep | Watch the shocking replay where Don Kaufman reveals: | ✓ Why the VXX dropped 90% (and how to profit from the OTHER side)
✓ The "certainty trade" hedge funds use to never lose
✓ How $2,000 accounts can copy $23 billion strategies
✓ The ONE thing in markets that's 100% predictable | This isn't about timing volatility spikes.
It's about profiting as volatility DECAYS. | And decay is guaranteed. | Time moves forward. Volatility dies. Money flows from retail to pros. | Unless you know about the Shadow Clocks. | WATCH REPLAY NOW | Goal: Double your money in 12 months
Strategy: Trade time itself
Risk: Controlled and hedged | Don helped build ThinkOrSwim. Managed systems for 7 million traders. | And he's never shared this publicly before. | The clocks are ticking.
Choose your side. |
|
|
|
|
Don Kaufman – Weekend Video Drop (After the Close Today) | 📌 Why Watch: | The market is on shaky legs: breadth deteriorating, Fed cut probabilities accelerating, and leadership narrowing into defensives (staples, gold, and bonds). Don will be releasing his Weekend Trading Outlook video after today's close, you can see it here. |
|
|
|
|
0 Response to "The Employment Numbers Are Lying to You"
Post a Comment