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Lululemon: 2 Signs the Bottom Is In, and 1 Sign It Isn't
Written by Sam Quirke. Published 10/21/2025.
Key Points
- The stock is down 60% from January’s peak but shows signs of a bottom.
- Oversold technicals and a fresh 75% upside analyst target support the case for a recovery rally.
- Not everyone on Wall Street is convinced, however, and Lululemon will have to work hard to regain trust.
Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU), once the darling of all retail stocks, has endured one of the steepest downtrends in the industry this year. Its shares are roughly 60% below their January peak, and every bullish rally over the past nine months has been beaten back. Even though its revenue is close to all-time highs and its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is the lowest it's ever been, the stock still trades near 2019 levels.
The good news for those on the sidelines is that the disconnect is becoming harder to justify. After months of relentless selling, there are signs the bears might finally be running out of steam. The key question is whether Lululemon has found a bottom—or if the stock is entering another extended downtrend. There are two compelling reasons to believe a bottom may be in place, and one reason that suggests caution is still warranted.
Technical Picture: Early Signs of a Bottom Forming
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From a technical perspective, at least, Lululemon is finally catching its breath and putting up a stronger line of defense. The stock hasn't made a new low since mid-September; last week's dip was quickly bought before it could retest those lows. Shares have pushed higher to start the week, showing buyers are becoming more aggressive.
The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started climbing out of extremely oversold territory and trending upward in recent weeks—a classic sign that bearish momentum is fading. Combined with the fact that every dip since September has found higher short-term support, the evidence suggests sellers may be exhausted.
The long-term trend remains unfavorable, but the short-term action looks bullish. As long as the $160 level holds, at minimum a temporary bottom appears to be forming.
Analyst Support: Big Upside Targets Still in Play
Another reason this looks like a solid entry: despite crushed sentiment, not every analyst has given up. Janine Stichter and her team at BTIG Research, for example, reiterated their Buy rating last week and kept a $303 price target.
In a note to clients they highlighted room for operational improvement and asked whether the worst-case scenario is already priced in. From Monday's close near $172, their target implies nearly 75% upside—not bad for a stock that has been sinking for most of the year.
What makes that call more compelling is the valuation reset already underway. Lululemon's P/E ratio has plunged from nearly 30 at the start of 2025 to below 12 today, meaning it wouldn't take much of an upside surprise in the next earnings report to spark a recovery. When you consider that Nike Inc (NYSE: NKE), another beaten-down retail stock, still trades at about 35 times earnings, Lululemon's risk/reward setup looks especially appealing right now.
Bear Case: Wall Street's Skeptics Aren't Done Yet
Still, it's not all sunshine. Several analysts remain unconvinced Lululemon is out of the woods. Last week, Bernstein cut its Outperform rating to Market Perform.
They noted that near-term catalysts are lacking and execution risk remains elevated.
That the downgrade came after a roughly 60% decline since January carries weight.
But one could argue that warning would have been more useful earlier in the year.
With technical indicators and price action now both suggesting a bottom may be forming, actions could speak louder than words.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism With a Clear Line in the Sand
For now, it's a story of extremes: deeply oversold and widely doubted, yet still fundamentally strong. Investors may have to pinch their noses, but that combination can set the stage for a comeback.
Upward momentum could struggle if more downgrades arrive, but if shares hold above $160 into November, that would all but confirm the bottom.
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