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Ian King
Chief Strategist, Strategic Fortunes
Amazon Earnings: What's Needed for a Breakout to New Highs?
Written by Sam Quirke. Published 10/27/2025.
Key Points
- Amazon’s shares remain boxed in between $210 and $240, despite a solid year of fundamental performance.
- Next week’s earnings will likely be the most significant catalyst of the quarter, and could ultimately decide if the uptrend resumes this side of the holidays.
- Analysts are still overwhelmingly bullish, but expectations are high as well.
Tech titan Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) heads into Thursday's earnings with plenty on the line. Recent weeks have seen the stock move more sluggishly than usual; shares were trading around $225 on Friday, Oct. 24, still capped below the stubborn $240 ceiling that has halted every rally since February. When we warned of a triple top taking shape, the stock was down about 6% from its September peak.
Investors will be forgiven for getting nervous with the stock essentially flat for the year, especially as the S&P 500 notched a fresh record on the morning of Oct. 24. To be fair, the bulls did defend $210 the week before—the same level they held in August—but without a positive surprise from this week's earnings, the stock risks slipping lower. So what kind of report is needed to avoid that?
Wall Street Expects More Than Just an Earnings Beat
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Click here to watch Jeff's urgent briefingFirst and foremost, Wall Street will look for proof that Amazon's three core growth engines—AWS, e-commerce, and advertising—are firing on all cylinders. After several steady quarters, expectations are elevated, and with a price-to-earnings ratio that's been rising steadily all year, the company must do more than simply meet analyst estimates.
Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating and $275 price target, citing strength in AWS and renewed AI demand. Both Stifel and Wedbush also reiterated Buy ratings on Oct. 24, with price targets up to $280, implying roughly 25% upside from current levels.
Those targets assume AWS growth accelerates and consumer spending remains healthy, particularly after October's Prime Day event. Strong post-event sales would reassure investors that the recent uptick in inflation isn't deterring shoppers and suggest consumers will keep spending through the holidays.
Q4 guidance will also need to be confident. The holiday quarter is historically Amazon's biggest, and upbeat commentary from management would go a long way toward restoring bullish momentum. However, with the valuation looking a bit rich, even a modest miss could reinforce fears that Amazon's rally has peaked.
Amazon Earnings Play: Aggressive vs. Cautious Approach
For investors, there are two clear approaches ahead of earnings. The first is aggressive: buy now and bet on another Amazon earnings beat. The company has a multi-year streak of topping expectations, and another strong report would likely fuel a fresh leg higher.
Those considering this play have added support from the broader risk-on sentiment and the fact that the major indices are at or near record levels.
The second, more cautious approach, is to wait for confirmation. A clean breakout above $240 with meaningful volume would signal the bulls are back in control. Given how lackluster Amazon has been in recent weeks, waiting for that proof may be the safer move.
Amazon's Fundamentals Are Strong—But Is That Enough?
Although two straightforward plays exist for going long, it's hard to find a reason to bet against Amazon. It remains one of the strongest names in global tech, with unmatched scale and a healthy balance sheet. But great companies aren't always great near-term trades. With the bulls lacking the control they've enjoyed for much of the year, this week's report will test their conviction.
The fundamentals remain solid: steady growth across core markets and several long-term tailwinds are in place. Still, "solid" may not be sufficient to justify another immediate move higher. For Amazon's rally to continue—and for the triple top to be decisively broken—this quarter's earnings will have to be exceptional. If they are, a run toward $280 by year-end is plausible; if not, the wait for a definitive breakout will likely continue.
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