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Don here...
6:50 am looked like a textbook entry.
If you took it, markets steamrolled you.
So, what changed by 7:16 am that Tony Rago said NOW was the time to jump on?
One word - Context.
You see, the ES carved out a perfect W-pattern on the weekly pivot early today.
The first short entry at 6:50 am looked perfect: a lower high forming, clear resistance.
That entry ran traders over. It came right back inside the range and shook everyone out.
The REAL entry was 7:16 am…AFTER the lower low confirmed…after the clean close back below the opening range.
That's when the probability shifted.
In today's free session replay, you'll discover:
- Why the ES leads the entire market like a compass pointing true north. This morning the ES carved out a perfect textbook pattern on the weekly pivot while NQ struggled to follow. But eventually NQ had no choice. Tony explains why watching ES behavior gives you the edge before moves happen. The volume data proves it. ES traded 1.1 million contracts versus 470,000 in NQ. Almost three times the participation. That's where the big money operates.
- The divergence pattern that telegraphed the morning selloff before it accelerated. While tech was holding relatively flat, ES was already breaking down. The advanced decline line confirmed broad selling was happening across the S&P 500 universe. Tony walks through exactly how to read this divergence so you're positioned before the cascade starts. This is how professionals see moves coming while retail traders are still hoping for bounces.
- Why a half percent down day felt like the market would fall out of bed. On the daily chart it looks like nothing. Barely breached yesterday's low. But in real time it felt heavy and relentless. Tony explains the psychology of why markets feel different at support levels versus resistance. The weekly pivot at 6750 held the selloff. That level became a magnet. Price gravitated to it, paused, and held. Understanding these inflection points is what separates reading tape from guessing.
- The opening range framework that catches big moves without getting chopped up. The first attempt to short resistance at 6:50am ran traders over. But the patient entry at 7:16am after the clean break gave you 40 handles to weekly open and yesterday's low. Tony breaks down why you cannot just jump on the first test. You wait for confirmation. You let the impatient traders get stopped out first. Then you enter with probability on your side.
- Why dip buyers kept getting denied all session despite the relentless market. Reflexive bounces kept appearing. Price would pop 10-15 handles and traders would rush in. Then it would fail immediately. Tony explains what this price action tells you about conviction. The big money wasn't buying this dip. They were legging in for scalps only. When that's happening, you know the path of least resistance is still down.
Tony caught the morning move for solid profit. Then spent the afternoon admitting he was "playing in traffic" trying to catch the next leg. Took multiple small losses. Ended up 4.5 handles feeling lucky.
That's the reality of trading. You take your edge when probability is high. You manage risk when the tape turns choppy. You don't force trades that aren't there.
The patterns Tony showed this morning repeat constantly. The ES leading. The opening range providing structure. Support levels becoming magnets.
He's been watching these patterns for 13 years. They don't change. The market keeps doing the same thing over and over again.
You just need to know where to look.
→ Watch Tony's complete session to see how ES drives market direction and why the opening range framework catches moves others miss
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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