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Don Kaufman here. |
You know me. I'm the guy who teaches people to embrace chaos. I made $1,445 during the April crash while everyone else was hiding under their desks. |
My Christmas tree trades are still working beautifully. But the signals I'm seeing underneath? They've got me seriously concerned. |
And if the guy who profits from chaos is worried about chaos, you should probably listen. |
Here's what nobody's talking about: |
VIX is sitting pretty at 16. CNBC's calling it a calm market. Your financial advisor is probably telling you everything's fine because we're still near all-time highs. |
They're all looking at the wrong numbers. |
Friday morning I was texting my trading room: "THE IMPLIED VOL IS ALL WRONG FOR THIS MARKET! The skew is picking up, the vol futures are acting weird... markets still see considerable risk. BE AFRAID." |
The signals that have me concerned: |
Skew is picking up hard - institutions are buying puts like crazy for protection. Not the slow, steady buying you see during normal markets. The desperate kind. |
Implied volatility is spiking in weird places while VIX stays calm. It's like the options market knows something the stock market hasn't figured out yet. |
Back month volatility is "freaking INSANE for ALL TIME HIGHS." Those are my exact words from Friday. |
Look, I've been doing this since the late 90s. I was trading during the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID - all of it. |
My Christmas tree strategy is designed to profit from exactly these conditions. The more chaos, the better they work. That April crash that made me $1,445? |
That was a Christmas tree trade. |
But here's what's different this time: |
The underlying volatility structure is showing stress levels I haven't seen since right before major market events. Most people have no clue because they're staring at VIX sitting at 16. |
VIX is a lagging indicator. By the time it spikes to 30 or 40, the real money has already been made by people who saw it coming. |
Most people are looking at their 401k statements, seeing markets near all-time highs, and thinking they're golden. |
They're not seeing what I'm seeing in the options market. They're not watching skew spike while VIX stays calm. They're not noticing that the smart money is positioning for something big. |
I don't know what's coming. Could be a tweet. Could be geopolitical. Could be the AI bubble finally admitting it's a bubble. |
What I do know is that when volatility hits - and it will hit - most people are going to get destroyed. |
Meanwhile, I'm getting ready to profit from it. |
My Christmas trees love chaos. |
The more volatile it gets, the more money they make. A 15% selloff? Great. A 20% crash like April? Even better. |
Markets would literally have to drop 24% before I'd even start to feel risk on these trades. |
The difference between me and everyone else? I have a plan for when everything goes to hell. Most people just hope it doesn't happen and get crushed when it does. |
Chaos is coming. The options market is practically screaming it. When it hits, you can either be one of the people getting destroyed, or you can be one of the people profiting from everyone else's fear. |
I'd rather be collecting premium from panicked institutions than joining them under the desk. |
Watch the full breakdown where I show you exactly what I'm seeing in the markets and how to position for what's coming. |
Because this calm market isn't going to stay calm much longer. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
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