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Just For You Big Banks Are Setting the Tone as Earnings Season Kicks OffWritten by Jordan Chussler. Published 10/25/2025. 
Key Points - Despite a potential rash of private credit risk, when the big banks kicked off Q3 earnings season, their strong financials were on full display.
- Last week, the big banks posted blowout earnings, quelling any fears about potential “cockroaches” and setting the tone for earnings season.
- Despite insurance stocks dragging down financials this year, the broad sector remains a safe play for the remainder of the year and into next.
As Q3 earnings season kicked off last week, the market got a scare when negative news about two small auto lenders broke. Auto parts lender First Brands filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection with about $6.1 billion in debt, while Tricolor — a subprime auto lender and dealer — filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, citing alleged systemic fraud. Porter Stansberry and Jeff Brown say a new U.S. national emergency is already underway — and it could trigger the biggest forced rotation of capital since World War II.
They reveal why Trump is mobilizing America's tech giants… and name the two stocks most likely to soar as trillions shift behind the scenes. Watch the National Emergency broadcast here In response, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned about risks in private credit, saying, "when you see one cockroach, there are probably more." But the operative words there are "private credit." When the publicly traded big banks reported, their results showed that the problems at First Brands and Tricolor are not a broad contagion for the banking industry. Big Banks Demonstrated Big Q3 Financial Results Though the financials sector has been the fifth-best performer among the 11 S&P 500 sectors this year, its 9.23% year-to-date (YTD) gain trails the overall index. Part of that lag reflects a weak year from the insurance industry, which is included in the financials sector. Large-cap insurers such as Progressive (NYSE: PGR), Marsh & McLennan Companies (NYSE: MMC), and UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) — with YTD losses near 8%, 11%, and 28%, respectively — helped weigh on the sector. Despite the sector's relative underperformance, one notable exception has been the big banks, which largely delivered strong Q3 earnings last week. JPMorgan Chase beat forecasts. Quarterly revenue of $46.4 billion represented roughly 9% year-over-year (YOY) growth, while earnings per share (EPS) of $5.07 were up 16% YOY and topped analysts' estimate of $4.83 by more than 10%. On an annualized basis, the bank's EPS is expected to grow about 7.29% next year. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) also beat Wall Street's top- and bottom-line expectations. Citigroup (NYSE: C) missed EPS forecasts by just $0.03, and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) narrowly missed revenue estimates despite reporting $11.33 billion — a 19.5% YOY increase. It's no surprise these stocks have outpaced the S&P 500 this year. Here are their YTD gains: - BAC: 16.32%
- WFC: 20.76%
- JPM: 23.79%
- MS: 27.61%
- GS: 32.00%
- C: 40.48%
Q3 is now in the rearview mirror, but several key themes from the big banks' reports offer clues about what investors might expect in Q4 and beyond. Key Takeaways From Big Banks' Earnings Calls A consistent theme across these banks was a surge in investment banking fees and trading revenue. That strength was driven by increased mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity and a pickup in IPOs, creating favorable conditions for the big banks. Global M&A activity in Q3 reached its highest level in a decade, with $371 billion in completed deals — surpassing the total for the first half of the year. North America led with $246 billion, more than double the amount from the same quarter a year earlier. Meanwhile, IPO filings were the strongest since Q4 2021, supported by several successful recent launches and companies with healthier fundamentals and higher chances of profitability. JPMorgan Chase, for example, reported a 9% YOY increase in trading revenue to a record $9 billion. Its investment banking fees rose 16% YOY, with fixed-income and equity trading up 21% and 33%, respectively. Bank of America's investment banking revenue jumped 43% YOY to more than $2 billion, while Wells Fargo reported a quarterly record $840 million in investment banking fees, up 25% YOY. A Financials ETF for Broad Exposure While earnings season is still in its early stages, the big banks have come out swinging. Their results suggest resilience despite concerns about valuation, market froth, and policy uncertainty — including tariffs. For investors seeking broad exposure to financials for the remainder of 2025, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLF) tracks the S&P 500's financials sector and could benefit if the lagging subsectors — like insurance — rebound into year-end and next year. The XLF's institutional ownership is nearly 73%, and its dividend yields 1.38% (roughly $0.73 per share annually). Meanwhile, the big banks remain attractive to many investors. Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo all carry average 12-month price targets that imply potential upside.
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