The Fed’s Big Decision Is Set to Shake the Market

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Larry’s Note: I’d like to invite you to a special venture… something I call “Benedict Capital.”

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The Fed's Big Decision Is Set to Shake the Market

By Larry Benedict, editor, Trading With Larry Benedict

As we begin the last month of the year, it can be tempting to start winding down…

To take your foot off the accelerator and ready yourself for holidays at year’s end. Especially after the hectic and crazy moves we’ve experienced in 2025.

But don’t start winding down too early…

A whole swath of factors could shake the market over the coming weeks. And what’s more, those factors could shape the start of 2026…

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Rate Cut or No Rate Cut?

The past month or so has been a reminder of how sensitive stocks are to interest rates. People can forget that when markets are in a bubble.

Stocks steadily fell when a December interest rate cut seemed off the table. But as rate cut expectations rose again, stocks resumed their recovery from their recent lows.

Markets are now putting expectations of a cut at around 87%.

But many people could be caught off guard if the expected cut doesn’t come through. That would likely kickstart a short, sharp sell-off.

And there’s plenty of key data coming down the pipe that could easily thwart a cut – no matter what odds the market is placing on it.

Tomorrow, we’ll see how the services sector (a cornerstone of the economy) is performing. After rebounding strongly last month to its best result since February, another bump in activity would show that the economy is performing strongly – and that could put a rate cut into jeopardy.

Then, on Friday, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – is scheduled for release.

We’ll also learn the latest personal income and spending data, which will help paint a picture of how people are feeling.

The Fed will also get the latest job opening numbers on the first day of its meeting next week.

Any surprises could put the Fed in a difficult position. And Fed officials are already divided about the merits of a rate cut…

Tune in to Trading With Larry Live

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Each week, Market Wizard Larry Benedict goes live to share his thoughts on what’s impacting the markets. Whether you’re a novice or expert trader, you won’t want to miss Larry’s insights and analysis. Even better, it’s free to watch.

Simply visit us on YouTube at 8:30 a.m. ET, Monday through Thursday, to catch the latest.

Finish the Year Strong

Clearly, the Fed’s got a lot to process. It’s easy to see how expectations could go off the rails in one way or another.

But that doesn’t mean we have to sit idle in the meantime…

Despite the uncertainty, our job as traders is to stick to our proven strategy and process. We want to keep banking wins no matter what the Fed’s decision is.

That will help us finish the year at full steam.

The key is to be as disciplined as you would be at the start of a trading year. Take each trade on its merits, and let any low-probability trades go. And stay prepared to take profits off the table.

Those principles will help you relax and enjoy the holiday period ahead. Just as importantly, they will also set you up for a strong start to 2026.

Happy Trading,

Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict

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