The NEGG Call That Hit 360%

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"When someone keeps buying after a 360% move, that's not speculation - that's conviction based on information you don't have."

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Karim Rahemtulla

Remember when I told you about that NEGG insider buying at $18?

He's still holding over 3.5 million shares.

Back in July, while analysts were calling Newegg "pure speculation," I showed you Vladimir Galkin dropping $11.6 million in three days on NEGG stock.

The pattern was textbook: heavy insider buying plus explosive potential.

NEGG went from my Trade of the Day call under $30 to $137.84 by August 21st. That's a 360% move in six weeks.

But here's what separates this from a lucky guess - Galkin kept buying all the way up to $104, and he's still holding every share while the stock trades in the mid-$50s.

The Psychology of Real Conviction

Most traders would have taken profits after a 100% move. Hell, most would have sold after 50%.

Not Galkin.

He bought at $18. Then $21. Then $29. Then $41. Then $55. Then $104.

Think about that psychology for a second. You're already sitting on massive gains, the stock has quadrupled, and you're still loading up at prices that would make most traders nervous.

That's not speculation. That's conviction based on information you don't have.

 

Why the Analysts Got It Completely Wrong

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While I was tracking Galkin's buying spree, the "smart money" was calling NEGG overvalued. Traditional metrics suggested this was a bubble waiting to pop. Fundamental analysis said the numbers didn't add up.

Meanwhile, Galkin - who made serious money during the 2021 GameStop rally and sits on a $200+ million JetBlue position - was backing up the truck with real money.

The analysts had spreadsheets. Galkin had inside information.

Guess who was right?

The Float Dynamics That Amplified Everything

Here's what made this move so explosive: NEGG only has about 19 million shares in the float. And Galkin? He controls over 3.5 million of them.

That's roughly 18% of all tradeable shares controlled by one insider who kept buying through a 360% run.

In a thin float like this, sustained insider buying doesn't just signal confidence - it physically removes shares from circulation. Every purchase matters when you're dealing with that kind of scarcity.

The Information Asymmetry Edge

This is precisely why I track insider transactions every single morning. Not to chase every buy, but to understand when someone with privileged information is putting serious money to work.

Galkin's buying pattern told the whole story:

  • Started accumulating under $20
  • Kept buying through $40
  • Doubled down above $50
  • Still buying at $104

That's not hope. That's a systematic accumulation by someone who saw around corners.

Why He's Still Holding

Here's what's fascinating: with NEGG now trading in the mid-$50s, Galkin could have locked in massive profits. Instead, he's holding his entire 3.5 million share position.

That tells me one of two things: either he's the worst trader alive, or he still sees significant upside from current levels.

Given his track record - GameStop profits, JetBlue activism, and this NEGG call - I'm betting on the latter.

The Broader Lesson About Information

This NEGG situation perfectly illustrates the difference between trading on hope and trading on information.

Retail traders were chasing momentum. Analysts were calling it speculation. But Galkin was systematically accumulating based on something the market hadn't priced in.

That information asymmetry is why insider buying matters more than any technical indicator or fundamental analysis. Because when someone risks their own money based on privileged information, that's the closest thing to a sure bet you'll find in markets.

Your Action Plan

Next time you're evaluating any position, ask yourself:

What are insiders doing with their own money? Are they making token purchases or betting the farm? Are they selling into strength or buying into weakness? Do they have a track record of being right?

Because here's the thing - I'm not telling you to chase NEGG at current levels.

But something tells me this play isn't over yet, given Galkin hasn't sold a single share yet.

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