Hope you had a great Christmas. Now back to reality.
| | | Hope your Christmas was great. | Now let me show you the market reality you're facing. | Your technical analysis isn't wrong. The battlefield changed. | THE OLD MARKET: | Support and resistance held for days Moving averages provided reliable signals Chart patterns worked for decades Weekly expected moves meant something
| THE NEW REALITY: | Traditional levels get obliterated in minutes by dealer hedging Gamma-heavy strike levels override historical prices Options positioning creates resistance that charts can't see Daily expected moves change hourly based on 0DTE flow
| When 0DTE options went from 5% to 60%+ of SPX volume, something fundamental broke. | The European Central Bank confirms it: 0DTE volume routinely creates 6.4 percentage point volatility spikes in 30-minute windows. That's not gradual price discovery -- that's explosive positioning unwinding. | I spent my career inside this transformation: | Started as a floor trader when options were monthly-only Helped design weekly expirations at Thinkorswim Ran education during the shift to daily dominance
| This week I explained exactly what changed: | 68% of the time, markets stay within expected move ranges driven by positive gamma effects. | The other 32%? That's where 700% gains happen in minutes when gamma flips negative and dealer hedging amplifies moves. | See how I read the new positioning-driven structure | You can keep fighting the old patterns in 2026. | Or learn to trade the systematic effects that actually move markets now. | To your success, | Don Kaufman |
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