When a $3.5 Trillion Company Becomes Dead Weight

Genesis COG is getting ready to close out a banner year.

YTD, the net percentage gain, no compounding, is 126.7%.

How’d Jeff Bierman do it?

I’m glad you asked, because he has a video that breaks it all down.

Don here...

Microsoft dropped on AI adoption news this morning. Some blog called "The Information" reported lower sales quotas for AI products. The stock tanked 3%.

Eventually, it bounced back when folks found out it was fake news. But it shows the glass we’re walking on is thinner than most trader realize.

Here's what matters. The S&P stayed flat despite Microsoft dragging like an anchor around the market's neck. That's not strength. That's denial.

In today's free session replay, you'll discover:

Why nobody actually uses AI enough to justify these valuations. I asked everyone in the room. Most don't use AI daily. I pay $20 monthly for ChatGPT and use free versions of everything else. How are they getting me to spend more? How is Microsoft building a $3.5 trillion company when adoption is this soft?
The difference between companies that sell real things and companies that sell promises. Walmart is up 25% this year. Outperforming almost every tech stock. They employ real people. They sell actual products. Their CEO doesn't wear a leather jacket. Yet Nvidia gets five times the market cap while selling BS to itself.
What strike price shift methodology reveals about trade construction. Most traders guess at risk reward. Professionals calculate exact profit and loss at specific price points before entry. Move up $2.50 and you lose this much. Move down $2.50 and you make that much. Simple math that changes everything about position sizing.
Why the Santa Claus rally myth needs to die. Everyone thinks December rallies. Wrong. The actual seasonal effect runs from Christmas to New Year's. One week. Not the whole month. Stop trading based on stories that aren't backed by data.
The psychology trap that destroys accounts. Trading exposes every character flaw you have. Greed blows you up. Fear makes you miss everything. Accountability forces discipline. That's why trading in front of people limits stupid decisions.

Markets don't respect opinions. They don't care about your thesis on AI adoption or retail strength or anything else. Price moves based on statistical arbitrage and mathematical relationships between correlated assets.

When a $3.5 trillion company drops 3% while everything else pretends to be fine, that imbalance doesn't last. Either Microsoft recovers or everything else gets pulled down with it. The weight is too heavy to ignore.

→ Watch today's session to see how professional traders think about correlation, why accountability matters more than conviction, and what happens when denial meets mathematical reality

To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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