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I had a 70% probability setup. The market gave me exactly what I expected. Then handed me an easy exit for quick profit. |
And I just... sat there. |
Not because I'm bleeding out or anything dramatic. It's a one lot. I'll be fine. |
But it's the principle of the thing. |
I know better. And I still didn't pull the trigger. |
Here's what happened. |
This morning, the SPX hit the upper edge of its expected move - exactly $6955. Perfect tag of a $46 statistical boundary that's been controlling every move all week. |
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I sold the 6965/6970 call spread for $1.30 credit. About 70% chance of keeping that money by close. |
Then we dropped off that boundary. I could have bought the spread back for 35 cents. Easy $95 profit per contract in about an hour. |
But I didn't pull the trigger. I should have already closed it. I should have had that order working. |
Now we're back around that boundary, and I'm playing the waiting game instead of banking the quick profit. |
Here's what kills me about this |
While I was trading that $46 mathematical boundary, what were most traders doing? |
Staring at support and resistance lines. Drawing trend channels. Arguing about whether we'd break higher or lower. |
Meanwhile, there's this statistical probability zone that's been dictating every single move all week. Week in and week out, we just keep gravitating to the expected move. It is ridiculous how efficient that is. |
I've been watching this for 25 years. You draw the expected move boundaries, and the market hugs those lines like grim death. |
But knowing the setup is only half the battle. You have to execute when the market gives you your profit. |
When we're inside that expected move? Moves get chopped out, they're gonna be all over the place. |
When we break outside? The violence starts here. |
That $46 isn't just a number - it's the boundary between random market noise and actual directional momentum. |
I had the right framework. Positioned at the statistical edge where selling premium makes sense. When the market moved away from that boundary, I should have taken my profit and moved on. |
Instead, I'm sitting here waiting for expiration when I could have been done an hour ago. |
The trade could still work - 70% is still 70%. But I turned an easy winner into a wait-and-see situation because I didn't have my exit order ready. |
Why this actually matters |
Right now we're stuck in the middle with you around that $6955 level. Could break higher, could drop. The original probability hasn't changed. |
But this is why most traders struggle. They think edge is about having the right setup. |
It's not. Edge is about executing the plan when the market gives you what you want. |
The expected move gave me the framework. The market gave me the setup. Then it handed me the exit on a silver platter. |
I took the setup. Missed the exit. Now I wait. |
Don't be me. Have your profit-taking orders ready before you need them. |
The market doesn't give a fuck about your trend lines. It cares about probabilities. But probabilities only work if you execute them properly. |
Those setups are sitting right there every single week. The question is whether you'll take the profits when they're handed to you. |
Want to see how this actually works without the execution mistakes? |
I'm doing a 4-week live zero DTE mastermind starting January 15th. Four 90-minute sessions plus live trading. You'll see exactly how expected move positioning works and - more importantly - when to actually close the trades. |
Everything recorded, 30-day money back guarantee, $1000 total investment. |
Click here to get the details - learn the framework that gives you 70% probability setups and the discipline to close them when you should. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. I've been trading options for 25 years. This is the first time I've ever run a live mastermind exclusively on zero DTE. When enrollment closes, it's done. Get in here. |
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