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Monolithic Power Systems Is Surging—Has Valuation Caught Up?

By Leo Miller. Published: 2/10/2026.

Quick Look

While other top chip stocks have lagged over recent months, Monolithic Power Systems continues to come through for investors.
The company is now firing on all cylinders, having seen strong growth across all end markets last quarter.
However, when it comes to achieving further upside, what is the outlook for MPWR shares?

Over the past three months, some of the biggest names in the semiconductor industry have stalled. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is up just 1% over that period, Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) is down 1%, and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) has fallen more than 7%.

That hasn't been the case for the supercharged chip stock Monolithic Power Systems (NASDAQ: MPWR). The shares have returned 26% over the past three months and 69% over the past 52 weeks.

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Monolithic posted its latest financial results on Feb. 5, which helped explain the stock's large move.

After such a significant ascent, is there still a compelling opportunity in MPWR shares?

MPWR Gets a Lift After Rock-Solid Earnings Report

In Q4 2025, Monolithic reported revenue of $751 million, up 21% year over year and comfortably above estimates near $742 million (which implied 19% growth). Adjusted earnings per share rose 17% to $4.79, beating estimates of $4.74 (16% growth).

The company's full-year performance was especially impressive: revenue grew more than 26% — its fastest pace since 2022 — and operating margin expanded 60 basis points to a strong 35.2%. Sales in five of Monolithic's six end markets increased by at least 25%; enterprise data was the lone laggard, with sales declining 2%. By Q4, every end market was growing at least 15% year over year.

In 2025, three end markets each accounted for at least 20% of total revenue, underscoring Monolithic's diversified customer base. Markets rewarded the company after the Feb. 5 release, with shares rising 6.4% the following day.

Monolithic Raises Data Center Forecasts, Sends 800 VDC Samples

Looking ahead, Monolithic expects revenue to grow by more than 22% based on the midpoint of its Q1 2026 guidance — well above consensus, which projected about 16% growth. Demand appears robust: the company's book-to-bill ratio was described as "well in excess of one" last quarter.

That indicates the company received more orders than it shipped, and its backlog now extends into Q3 2026. The enterprise data segment, which includes data center sales, is particularly strong: Monolithic raised its 2026 sales-growth estimate for this market from 30–40% to a floor of 50%.

Looking further out, Monolithic has a large opportunity in 800-volt direct-current (VDC) data center architecture — an emerging power-delivery approach that NVIDIA is pushing. Monolithic says it was the first company to ship product samples as it competes for the 800 VDC business. Revenue from this initiative likely would not show up until late 2027 or beyond, but the update signals the firm's technical readiness to pursue high-value deals.

Monolithic: Fantastic Executor, Premium Valuation

Overall, it's hard to fault Monolithic Power Systems as an operator. The company has strong execution, diversified end markets and attractive data center tailwinds. The key caveat is valuation: the current share price implies very high free-cash-flow growth expectations for many years to come.

That creates a demanding setup. Even small execution missteps could trigger a meaningful share-price correction when expectations are this elevated.

The MarketBeat consensus price target sits near $1,218, implying roughly 1% upside. Analysts who updated targets after the earnings release are more bullish, averaging $1,309 (about 8% upside). Rosenblatt Securities' updated $1,000 target implies roughly 17% downside, while KeyCorp's $1,500 target implies about 24% upside.

Despite a valuation that appears stretched, Monolithic remains a high-quality company with long-term growth potential. Advances in power-regulation chips and systems are foundational to progress across many technology sectors, and Monolithic is well-positioned to benefit.

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