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The S&P 500 looks dead flat. Has for months. |
Everyone thinks that's boring. Safe. Nothing to worry about. |
They're sitting on a powder keg and don't even know it. |
Right now, we've got what I'm calling a "tsunami of gamma risk" building up under this sideways market. And when it finally lets loose, the moves are going to be explosive. |
Most traders might see 1.3 million contracts of volume while the market goes nowhere and think, "Whatever. Another craptastic day." |
They have no idea what's coming. |
The Powder Keg Is Already Built |
Here's what's really happening while everyone's bored out of their minds. |
We've been grinding sideways around 6,900 since mid-October. Months of going absolutely nowhere. And every single week we stay trapped in this range, more risk piles up. |
Open interest. Massive amounts of it, all clustered around the same strikes in SPX options. |
Think of it like this: imagine a snowball that's sitting still but getting bigger every day. That's what's happening with options positioning right now. The ball of risk just continues to grow. And grow. And grow. |
Here's the scary part. |
All those options have to be hedged by market makers. |
The more open interest that builds up, the more violent the moves become when we finally break. |
If we break down, market makers have to sell with the move. Dynamically. The selling accelerates as it develops. |
If we rip up, same thing in reverse. They have to buy into the strength. |
Either way, when this gamma risk explodes, it's not gradual. |
It's violent. |
The Desperation Is Starting to Show |
Want proof this powder keg is ready to blow? |
Look at what money is buying out of pure desperation. |
Walmart. Caterpillar. Exxon Mobile up 27% year-to-date. |
This is a stock - Exxon - that's had a nail in its foot for three years. Suddenly it's the hottest thing going? Caterpillar up 29%? Consumer staples up 14%? |
These aren't normal moves. This is panic buying. |
Meanwhile, everything that's been holding this market up is getting destroyed. |
Google - the main support beam - is breaking down. Microsoft getting killed. Meta back to flat for the year. Amazon down 10% year-to-date. |
When tech stops working, you have to buy five times more industrial crap just to keep the market from falling. |
That's not sustainable. |
That's desperation. |
How I'm Reading This Setup |
Yesterday I closed a 0DTE GOOGL trade for 236% in one day. |
By purely reading gamma risk correctly. |
When these powder kegs explode, they move fast. You don't need months. You need hours. |
The key is positioning before the break. Once it blows, you're either already in or you missed it. |
Right now we're in dangerous territory. |
Either tech comes roaring back immediately - and I mean buying Google and Amazon like the world's ending - or this market breaks the volatility box we've been trapped in. |
If we crack below 6850-6950, all that built-up gamma risk is going to accelerate the move down. |
Fast. |
Most traders won't see it coming because they think sideways equals safe. |
The most dangerous market condition isn't volatility. |
It's the calm before the storm. |
Tomorrow I'm trading 0DTE live for three hours as part of the Don-DTE Mastermind. These gamma risk explosions are exactly what I'll be hunting - the setups most traders miss because they think flat markets are harmless. |
The next trading session could get angry in a hurry. |
Don't get caught thinking sideways is safe. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. - Tomorrow I'm trading 0DTE live for three hours as part of the Don-DTE Mastermind. I'll be showing members exactly how to read these gamma risk buildups and position for the explosive moves that follow. If you want to see how to turn 'boring' markets into 200%+ winners, join us in the Don-DTE Mastermind.The S&P 500 looks dead flat. Has for months. |
Everyone thinks that's boring. Safe. Nothing to worry about. |
They're sitting on a powder keg and don't even know it. |
Right now, we've got what I'm calling a "tsunami of gamma risk" building up under this sideways market. And when it finally lets loose, the moves are going to be explosive. |
Most traders might see 1.3 million contracts of volume while the market goes nowhere and think, "Whatever. Another craptastic day." |
They have no idea what's coming. |
The Powder Keg Is Already Built |
Here's what's really happening while everyone's bored out of their minds. |
We've been grinding sideways around 6,900 since mid-October. Months of going absolutely nowhere. And every single week we stay trapped in this range, more risk piles up. |
Open interest. Massive amounts of it, all clustered around the same strikes in SPX options. |
Think of it like this: imagine a snowball that's sitting still but getting bigger every day. That's what's happening with options positioning right now. The ball of risk just continues to grow. And grow. And grow. |
Here's the scary part. |
All those options have to be hedged by market makers. |
The more open interest that builds up, the more violent the moves become when we finally break. |
If we break down, market makers have to sell with the move. Dynamically. The selling accelerates as it develops. |
If we rip up, same thing in reverse. They have to buy into the strength. |
Either way, when this gamma risk explodes, it's not gradual. |
It's violent. |
The Desperation Is Starting to Show |
Want proof this powder keg is ready to blow? |
Look at what money is buying out of pure desperation. |
Walmart. Caterpillar. Exxon Mobile up 27% year-to-date. |
This is a stock - Exxon - that's had a nail in its foot for three years. Suddenly it's the hottest thing going? Caterpillar up 29%? Consumer staples up 14%? |
These aren't normal moves. This is panic buying. |
Meanwhile, everything that's been holding this market up is getting destroyed. |
Google - the main support beam - is breaking down. Microsoft getting killed. Meta back to flat for the year. Amazon down 10% year-to-date. |
When tech stops working, you have to buy five times more industrial crap just to keep the market from falling. |
That's not sustainable. |
That's desperation. |
How I'm Reading This Setup |
Yesterday I closed a 0DTE GOOGL trade for 236% in one day. |
By purely reading gamma risk correctly. |
When these powder kegs explode, they move fast. You don't need months. You need hours. |
The key is positioning before the break. Once it blows, you're either already in or you missed it. |
Right now we're in dangerous territory. |
Either tech comes roaring back immediately - and I mean buying Google and Amazon like the world's ending - or this market breaks the volatility box we've been trapped in. |
If we crack below 6850-6950, all that built-up gamma risk is going to accelerate the move down. |
Fast. |
Most traders won't see it coming because they think sideways equals safe. |
The most dangerous market condition isn't volatility. |
It's the calm before the storm. |
Tomorrow I'm trading 0DTE live for three hours as part of the Don-DTE Mastermind. These gamma risk explosions are exactly what I'll be hunting - the setups most traders miss because they think flat markets are harmless. |
The next trading session could get angry in a hurry. |
Don't get caught thinking sideways is safe. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. - Tomorrow I'm trading 0DTE live for three hours as part of the Don-DTE Mastermind. I'll be showing members exactly how to read these gamma risk buildups and position for the explosive moves that follow. If you want to see how to turn 'boring' markets into 200%+ winners, join us in the Don-DTE Mastermind. |
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