Dear Fellow Traveler, On February 4, 2026, momentum stocks experienced one of their worst days in 25 years. There was a four-sigma event. The kind of thing that’s only supposed to happen once every 63 years. AI names got crushed. Nuclear plays got crushed. High-beta growth stocks across the board… crushed. If you were chasing momentum that week, you already know what happened to your portfolio. You don’t need me to describe the feeling. But here’s what you might not know. On January 28, a week before it happened, I emailed every subscriber to the Capital Wave Report, telling them something was wrong. Our signal had gone red.
The math was clear. And the readers who followed it stepped aside before the carnage started. It came two days after I told readers to take profits, as our signal had really broken down from breakout pattern to something more troubling…
One reader who took action was Keith K., who wrote me afterward. He said, “Following your line of thinking on momentum and liquidity from the free side of your Substack saved me mucho bucks looking at this week’s market turn. You’ve made it all very approachable and engaging for the average Joe like me.” He wasn’t the only one. But let me back up. One Number. Every Day.Every morning, I now publish a single number. It tracks sector-level momentum shifts, volume conviction, and net directional pressure across every S&P 500 stock. I measure how many stocks are surging (“Screamers”) versus how many are collapsing (“Crashers”). The net balance between them is the score.
If that number is positive, stay in the game. If it goes negative, play defense. That’s the simple concept... It’s not a guess. It’s not a gut feeling. It’s the math underneath the market that most people never see… the structural shift that happens days to weeks before the headline index confirms it. The Crasher pool grows quietly, the Screamer pool shrinks, and CNBC is still telling you everything is fine. Since 2020, this signal has gone negative before every major drawdown. The COVID crash in February 2020. The largest hedge fund selloff in 15 years that occurred in June 2022… and delivered a 10x bagger in the process. Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023. The Nikkei Implosion in August 2024. The Liberation Day crash in April 2025. And the momentum and gold crash in the last two weeks... The Stories That Keep Me GoingThis means a lot to me… people write me letters saying that they protected their money by following our daily insights. David C. wrote me on February 25, 2025, weeks before the Liberation Day crash. He said, “I am not a wealthy investor… But after you announced your signals went red and the markets continued lower, I moved a third of my equity-based retirement portfolio into cash equivalents, which means a little over 100K. Doing this has saved me the loss of several thousand dollars, and counting.” Before that same crash, a friend of 10 years sent me a three-pound Tomahawk steak for my birthday. He’d taken gains on Apple and Microsoft and said he was eager to wait for the green light. Apple fell more than 25% from the day our signal turned red until the bottom, when insiders started buying again on April 8. (I have a hard time topping that birthday present.) These aren’t hypothetical scenarios. These are real people who saw a number, trusted the math, and protected what was theirs while everyone else watched their portfolios bleed. What You Would Have KnownIf you’d been a subscriber on January 28, 2026, you would have received an email that morning stating that the signal was red. You would have known to hold off on any new bullish positions. You would have been cautious, hedged, or in cash when the four-sigma event hit a week later. You wouldn’t have been staring at your screen, wondering what happened. You would have already known it was coming. That’s the gap that the Capital Wave Report fills. Most financial newsletters find good companies. They analyze fundamentals. They build compelling theses. But almost none of them tell you when to buy and when to step aside. A great pick at the wrong time is just an expensive lesson in buyer’s remorse. Every day, subscribers receive the Daily Momentum Reading across the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Green means go. Red means play defense. Along with the signal, I publish daily market analysis, an insider buying tracker, a liquidity dashboard tracking the Fed and Treasury, model portfolios built around high-quality companies with virtually no debt, and macro analysis covering the policy shifts that create tradeable turning points. I do all the work. I simplify the complexity of global capital flows, Fed policy, and market internals into one clear direction so you don’t need a Ph.D. to protect your portfolio. Get it for $80 per year… so long as you’re a member… The Capital Wave Report usually costs $160 a year. And we’ll be increasing that price to $200 a year in about a month… This is your chance to get it one last time for $80… That’s less than $7.00 a month. For a signal that has triggered every major drawdown since 2020. I’m not promising 1,000% gains. I’m making sure you don’t give back the ones you’ve already earned. Next time the market turns… and it will turn… you’ll either have the number, or you won’t. SUBSCRIBE TO THE CAPITAL WAVE REPORT FOR $80/YEAR Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin Me and the Money Printer | The Capital Wave Report About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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