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Chevron Earnings Hint at New Highs—Is CVX Ready to Run?
Authored by Chris Markoch. Date Posted: 2/1/2026.
Quick Look
- Chevron earnings highlighted record production and strong cash flow despite lower oil prices.
- The company's newly acquired Hess assets and global projects position set the stage for production growth in 2026.
- A 39-year dividend growth streak and rising momentum support a bullish case for CVX stock.
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) reported mixed results in its fourth-quarter earnings report. The integrated oil giant slightly missed on revenue, while earnings beat expectations. Several metrics were lower year-over-year, reflecting the weaker oil price environment in 2025.
Nevertheless, the company is optimistic about 2026. Two drivers of that optimism are a full year of production from assets acquired in the Hess merger and a growing role in Venezuela. Chevron announced plans to increase production in Venezuela by 50% over the next 18 to 24 months, a move that could meaningfully boost volumes.
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Investors may have wanted more from the report, but the results reinforce why Chevron remains a strong buy in the energy sector. Along with a dependable dividend, Chevron's performance should support CVX stock heading toward a new all-time high by year-end.
Record Production Drives Growth
Chevron posted record production in 2025, rising about 12% and landing at the top end of its guidance range. That performance was driven by execution across several key projects, including:
- Tengizchevroil (TCO)
- Permian Basin
- Gulf of America (GOA)
- Geismar chemical facility
Net oil and gas production also benefited from contributions from recently acquired Hess assets, which added roughly 261 MBOED (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day), primarily from Guyana and the Bakken.
Chevron's momentum extends beyond traditional upstream activity. In the Eastern Mediterranean, the company completed its Tamar optimization project, achieved first gas, and reached a final investment decision on the Leviathan expansion, with additional capacity expected online in early 2026. The Aphrodite gas development has also entered front-end engineering design, positioning Chevron for sustained growth in the region.
For 2026, Chevron projects production growth of 7% to 10% at $60-per-barrel Brent. That outlook incorporates a full year of Hess asset contributions in Guyana and the Bakken, offshore growth from GOA and the Eastern Mediterranean, and the expectation that the U.S. shale and tight portfolio has reached a production plateau. Management expects TCO to add about 30 MBOED, while noting that base production trends and other factors could reduce output by roughly 50 MBOED.
39 Years and Counting
Chevron raised its quarterly dividend to $1.78 from $1.71, a 4% increase year over year. This increase is slightly below the annualized five-year dividend growth rate of 6.49%, but it marks 39 consecutive years of dividend increases for this Dividend Aristocrat.
The dividend is well supported by adjusted free cash flow, which rose about 35% in 2025 despite a roughly 15% decline in oil prices.
Strong Financial Position and Capital Discipline
Chevron's 2025 financial performance shows resilience amid a challenging price backdrop. The company generated $33.9 billion in cash flow from operations, or $34.9 billion excluding working capital changes.
Full-year net earnings were $12.3 billion, or $6.63 per diluted share, while adjusted earnings were $13.5 billion, or $7.29 per share. These results were delivered with Brent averaging about $69 per barrel in 2025, down from $81 per barrel in 2024.
Chevron returned a record $27 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $2.2 billion spent on Hess common stock in the first quarter. The total consisted of $12.8 billion in dividends and $12.1 billion in share repurchases, reflecting management's commitment to a through-the-cycle shareholder return strategy.
Capital discipline remains a priority. Chevron achieved $1.5 billion in structural cost savings in 2025, with efficiency gains making up more than 60% of the reduction. Management remains on track to deliver $3 billion to $4 billion in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, helping keep the dividend breakeven below $50 per barrel of Brent through 2030.
Higher All-Time Highs Are in Sight
CVX stock is up more than 12% in 2026 heading into earnings. That move has pushed the stock above its rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and close to a new 52-week high. The breakout marks a bullish shift from last year's choppy consolidation and turns the prior resistance around $155 into fresh support.
Supporting the advance are expanding volume and a strengthening momentum picture: the MACD has moved into positive territory, suggesting the rally is gaining conviction rather than representing a short-lived spike.
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