VIX at 25. SPX pricing a $100 move by Friday. I just walked through three trade ideas on Schwab that go against what everyone else is chasing. One could drag the entire S&P down with it.
| | I just wrapped my Big 3 segment on Schwab and had to get this out before the chaos really hits. | Markets feel calmer today. They're not. | VIX is sitting at 25. Volatility futures are still bid. And the SPX is pricing over a $100 move just for this Friday's expiration. | Translation: This week is going to get downright crazy. | So I walked through three setups on Schwab that go directly against what everyone else is buying right now. | Setup #1: The "Bounce and Fade" Play | Major Chinese tech name. Six consecutive weeks of selling. Then a reflexive bounce shows up — people trying to catch a dip, shorts covering, typical stuff. | But here's the thing: that bounce? It's not the start of a recovery. It's the setup for the next leg down. | I call it bounce and fade. The bounce is what we're seeing right now. The fade is what comes next. | Setup #2: The "Panic at the Disco" Reversal | Airline ETF. Absolutely crushed. Oversold on every indicator you want to look at. Shorts are firing into it heavily. | But here's what caught my attention: all that selling stopped dead at a former support level. | Heavy news is out. Oversold conditions are extreme. And support is holding — for now. | I'm not long-term bullish on airlines. I have a tough time being long-term bullish on anything airline-related. But short-term? This looks like a reflexive bounce setup. | Setup #3: The "Alignment" Break That Could Pull the Entire Market Down | Mega-cap tech giant. Former Magnificent Seven member. (Does anyone even remember that term anymore?) | It's been moving sideways for weeks. But that's not consolidation. That's alignment. | And it's aligning for a meaningful break below a key psychological level. | Here's why this matters: this company is a heavyweight in the S&P 500. A break below this level doesn't just affect one stock. It has ripple effects across the entire index. | The technicals are setting up. The alignment is there. The break could come as early as today. | Look, I'm not trying to be a contrarian just to be different. | I'm picking off what I call low-hanging fruit — setups that look obvious once you strip away the noise. | Six weeks of selling that pauses for a day? That's not a reversal. That's a bounce before the fade. | Extreme oversold conditions hitting support? That's not capitulation. That's a reflexive bounce setup. | Sideways action right below a key psychological level? That's not consolidation. That's alignment before a break. | The volatility is here. The setups are here. And this week is going to get wild. | ⇒ WATCH THE FULL SCHWAB BREAKDOWN HERE | Don't blame the messenger. | To your success, | Don Kaufman |
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