Karim Rahemtulla, Co-Founder, Monument Traders Alliance Dear Reader, Most investors run the same portfolio in every market. That is a mistake. There is a time to push it. To swing for excessive returns, load up on high beta names, and let compounding do the heavy lifting. And there is a time to protect what you have, generate income, and wait for the right conditions to come back around. The market is flat on the year. The VIX is sitting at 28. There are war headlines every morning. Now is not the time to push. I own silver. Have for years. I love silver. But in January, when dealers stopped buying it, when the spread between what you could buy it for and what you could sell it for blew out to levels I had never seen, I shorted it. Not because I stopped believing in silver. Because silver had stopped being an investment and had become speculation. The environment changed. My position changed with it. That is the only way to stay in this game long term. You have to know which game you are in. That's where beta comes in... Why Beta Matters Right Now Beta is a measure of how much a stock amplifies the market's moves. A stock with a beta of 1 moves in line with the S&P 500. A stock with a beta of 2 moves twice as much in both directions. When the market goes up 10%, that stock goes up 20%. When the market goes down 10%, that stock goes down 20%. Carvana's beta is 2.32 right now. The stock hit an all-time high of $486 in January 2026. It is now trading around $323. That is a 33% drop in two months. The market environment shifted, and high beta names get hit hardest when the music stops. And despite the drop, Carvana is a stock I believe still has a ton of risk, and one I'd avoid. In a raging bull market, high beta stocks are rocket ships. In a flat, choppy, headline-driven market, they are the first things that get sold. Right now, the S&P 500 is basically flat on the year. If you are loaded up on high beta names, you've been riding violent swings in both directions and ending up nowhere. That is not investing. That is punishment. So the question to ask yourself today is this... Is my portfolio built for the environment I am actually in? Two Different Games There are two different games you can play depending on where the market is. Game 1 is growth mode. The market is trending higher. Breadth is expanding. Volatility is low. That is when you want exposure to high beta names, speculative positions, companies growing fast and priced for perfection. That is when you push for excessive returns. You have the wind at your back and you use it. Game 2 is preservation mode. The market is choppy. Volatility is elevated. Headlines are driving price action instead of fundamentals. That is when your job is not to make a killing. Your job is to not lose ground. You own sound businesses. You collect income. You position yourself to have dry powder when Game 1 comes back around. The AI names that ran 200% and are now giving half of it back. Carvana off 33% from its highs. Crypto names getting cut in half. Those are Game 1 trades. In Game 1 you own them and you ride them. In Game 2 you watch them from the sideline. | 
.gif)
0 Response to "♟ Most Investors Run the Same Portfolio in Every Market. That Is a Mistake."
Post a Comment