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We Haven't Had a Real Correction Yet… I’m going to let you in on something that might surprise you. The market feels like a disaster right now, doesn’t it? Day after day we’re seeing wild swings, and nine out of the last 11 sessions have exceeded the market maker move. With that kind of volatility, it feels like we’ve already lived through a 19% correction. But here’s the reality check you need: The S&P 500 (SPY) is only down about 4% from recent highs. That’s it — roughly 4%. A move like that doesn’t even come close to signaling anything meaningful. In fact, it’s not until we push down into the $650s on SPY that you’re looking at something that actually qualifies as a meaningful correction. When you’re watching massive intraday moves and seeing red everywhere, your brain naturally starts telling you we’re already in full correction mode. But we’re not. Not even close. The Zoom Problem This is what happens when you get too zoomed in on the daily chart. You see large red candles, you see what looks like a breakdown and it starts to feel like a significant flush is underway. Naturally, the next thought becomes, “OK, this must be the bottom — time to buy back in.” But when you zoom out to the monthly chart, the picture changes completely. This pullback barely registers. It shows up as a tiny blip on what has been an enormous bull run. And remember, we haven’t even had a 6% correction yet during this entire run higher. The market has been so strong for so long that even a modest pullback suddenly feels dramatic. So when someone tells me they’re buying because “the market found support at $662,” I have to push back on that thinking. That’s not really how corrections work. A healthy correction doesn’t even begin until we reach around $650 on SPY. Only once we get down into that area are we entering what you might call a healthy correction zone. A meaningful 8% to 10% move would likely take us into the low $650s or even lower. Right now, we’re mostly just seeing noise. How to Stay Grounded The violent back-and-forth we’re seeing right now can absolutely wear you down. It feels like the market is constantly swinging against you, which makes it easy to lose perspective. This is exactly when you need to step back and look at the bigger picture. Pull up a monthly chart and take a moment to really look at it. What you’ll notice is that this entire “correction” barely dents the larger trend. That context matters when you’re structuring trades or deciding whether you want to buy a dip. I’m not saying the market can’t go lower. It absolutely can, and if we break below $670 there’s a good chance we finally see the larger correction many traders have been expecting. But don’t let the daily chaos trick you into thinking we’ve already had that correction. We haven’t. The market has simply been very good at making a 4% move feel like a 19% one, and that perception gap can lead to costly decisions if you’re not careful. Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook! How to Target Decent Overnight Payouts This Week There’s almost nothing better than waking up to fresh deposits in your account. I know this because traders who followed my No. 1 overnight setup have received eight of those deposits in a row. That’s eight consecutive trades where they collected payouts averaging about 25% overnight. Now, I can’t make absolute guarantees about what the market will do next. But if conditions cooperate, we may be able to keep this streak going. We’re already lining up new trades for this week. And if you’d like to see how you can join the next overnight opportunity… Nate Tucci Tucci Trades You can also follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more in my official Telegram channel! Important Note: No one from the New Money Crew team or Tucci Trades will ever contact you directly on Telegram. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. |
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