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Today's Bonus News
Tesla: Why Things Could Get Worse Before They Get BetterAuthor: Sam Quirke. Publication Date: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Tesla shares have had a rough first quarter and remain under pressure after this week’s weak delivery data.
- Analyst opinion is sharply divided, with recent price action pointing to further downside risk in the near-term.
- However, with earnings approaching and sentiment close to rock bottom, the setup could still favor a sharp rebound if the report is strong enough.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Shares of automotive giant Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) are trading around $345 — roughly 30% below their December highs — and remain locked in a grinding downtrend that shows little sign of reversing. What looked like a healthy pullback in January has increasingly taken on a longer-term character, with each rally attempt met by selling and lower lows being set. At the start of the year, a clear narrative shift was underway. Investors began to view Tesla as a robotics and automation company rather than solely an electric vehicle (EV) maker. That reframing helped justify the company’s triple-digit valuation and sustained bullish sentiment, but in recent weeks that optimism has started to fade. This week’s weak delivery data has refocused attention on Tesla’s core automotive business. Without meaningful results from the pivot to automation, bulls have little left to cling to. With a little less than two weeks until the company’s next earnings report, it looks like things could get worse before they get better. Let’s jump in and see exactly what’s driving the weakness. Weak Deliveries Bring Focus Back to the Core Business
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This week’s delivery report was a setback for Tesla investors, coming on top of an already difficult first quarter. Expectations weren’t high, but the numbers disappointed nonetheless, reinforcing concerns about slowing demand and mounting competition in the EV market. When Wall Street was fully backing Tesla’s longer-term autonomy and AI narrative, short-term delivery fluctuations were easier to overlook. Now that narrative has lost some momentum, investors are once again anchoring valuations to the company’s core automotive performance. A Premium Valuation Means Even Less Room for ErrorThat would be less of a problem if Tesla weren’t still priced for aggressive growth. With a price-to-earnings ratio well above 300, the stock’s valuation leaves little room for disappointing updates like this week’s delivery figures or continued uncertainty around the path to profitability for its autonomy and robotics plans. There are still analysts who believe in Tesla’s long-term potential. This past week, Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating, calling current weakness an opportunity. But that view must be weighed against JPMorgan’s update this week, which reiterated a Sell rating and echoed BNP Paribas’ move last month. Price Action Suggests More Pain Could Be ComingBears argue that weakening fundamentals combined with a premium valuation are a dangerous mix. The chart’s ongoing downtrend, which hit fresh lows this week, supports that case. Technically, the stock has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows since December; until that pattern changes, it’s hard to be constructive. At the same time, sentiment has soured, with the stock’s relative strength index flirting with extremely oversold levels. That creates an interesting setup for sidelined investors. On one hand, Tesla’s fundamentals and price action point to further downside risk. On the other, you could argue that the worst-case scenario is becoming priced in. Historically, these conditions have sometimes been attractive entry points for long-term Tesla bulls, as the company has on occasion defied peak bearish conviction. Earnings Will Be KeyThe company’s upcoming earnings report, due on 22 April, now carries extra importance. With expectations pared back and sentiment low, the odds of a large upside surprise are limited. Investors will be watching closely for any evidence that Tesla’s longer-term strategy around autonomy, robotics and AI is translating into tangible progress. Equally important will be updates on margins and EV demand trends to determine whether the core automotive business is stabilizing. If Tesla posts modestly better-than-expected results and offers a clearer path forward, the stock could start attracting demand. But if the report disappoints or reinforces existing concerns, the downtrend could easily produce fresh lows. Given the stock’s premium multiple, the market may be unforgiving. |
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