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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com
These are the 3 Biggest AI Winners and Losers of 2026Written by Leo Miller. Posted: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- AI is beating down software stocks, but the losses hitting one name really stick out
- Optical transceivers are having a heyday in AI data centers, and this small name is skyrocketing
- A memory chip stock that took off last year isn't slowing down in 2026
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
In 2026 the market has clearly sorted stocks into perceived artificial intelligence (AI) winners and losers. Software names overall have taken a hit, though some suffer more from AI-driven fears than others. At the same time, certain hardware stocks have delivered stellar returns, even as giants such as NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) have stalled. These are the market’s biggest AI winners and losers so far in 2026, focusing on U.S. tech stocks with market capitalizations above $10 billion. Applied Optoelectronics Rides the Transceiver Wave
The mainstream explanation for the Iran airstrikes may not be the full story. Addison Wiggin, Founder of Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, says there's a deeper motive behind the bombing campaign that most coverage is ignoring.
If you're making investment decisions based on what you're hearing in the news, Wiggin argues you could be working with an incomplete picture. Read Addison Wiggin's full breakdown of the real Iran story
Among U.S. technology stocks with market capitalizations above $10 billion, Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ: AAOI) is the market’s best performer of 2026, with shares up more than 300%. Throughout the year, Applied has repeatedly announced that a major hyperscale customer is ordering its optical transceivers. Applied’s jump has come as investors flock to optical transceiver names. Notably, Lumentum (NASDAQ: LITE), a much larger player, has seen its share price rise more than 130% in 2026. Optical transceivers are increasingly in demand for data center networking because they enable higher-speed data processing. Beginning 2026 with a market capitalization of just $2.4 billion, Applied has benefited disproportionately from this trend. With Applied’s market capitalization now approaching $12 billion and trailing 12-month sales of $445 million, investors are pricing in substantial future growth. Applied is growing rapidly: revenues rose 84% year over year (YOY) in 2025. Analysts expect that growth to accelerate, projecting sales to increase nearly 110% in 2026 and the company to return to adjusted profitability for the first time since 2018—forecasting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) above $0.80 versus a $0.26 loss in 2025. Software Sell-Off Hits Atlassian From Multiple AnglesAtlassian (NASDAQ: TEAM) has been among the hardest-hit software stocks amid fears of AI disruption, with shares down more than 60% in 2026. One reason: a large portion of Atlassian’s customer base consists of software developers. AI coding tools have made development materially easier, which could reduce firms’ demand for developers. Atlassian uses a “seat-based” pricing model, billing customers per employee with access to its tools. A decline in required developers would directly hit that model. Markets may also fear customers could use AI tools to build applications that replicate Atlassian’s functionality. These dynamics have pressured Atlassian more than many peers. The company still posted robust growth—revenues rose more than 23% YOY last quarter—but the risks raise questions about sustainability. The market appears to be pricing in little or no long-term free cash flow growth: Atlassian’s trailing 12-month free cash flow fell 7% in the latest quarter. SanDisk’s Incredible Run ContinuesAfter a 559% gain in 2025, SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) has continued to climb—up more than 250% in 2026—making it one of the market’s top AI-related performers. Since its February 2025 IPO, SNDK has returned over 2,200%. The rally is driven by surging demand for memory and storage chips in data centers. As a leading supplier of NAND flash memory in a concentrated market, SanDisk faces extremely tight supply, allowing it to command rapidly rising prices. TrendForce projects NAND flash prices will rise 70%–75% quarter over quarter (QoQ) in Q2 2026, after an estimated 85%–90% QoQ increase in Q1. If accurate, that would imply cumulative price gains of roughly 215%–233% over the first half of the year, helping explain SanDisk’s rally. Analysts forecast SanDisk’s adjusted EPS could exceed $14 in a single quarter—up from $6.20 last quarter. A Software Recovery Is Unlikely to Come EasilyApplied Optoelectronics, Atlassian and SanDisk illustrate how differently the market is pricing AI exposure. Some analysts still see significant upside for Atlassian—many project 100%+ gains—but even if a rebound occurs, the steady stream of new AI tools is unlikely to slow soon, potentially keeping pressure on software valuations. |
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