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Further Reading from MarketBeat
Visa Soars Post-Earnings; Outlook Positive Despite AI RisksSubmitted by Leo Miller. Posted: 5/2/2026. 
Key Points
- Visa shares reversed course after its latest earnings report, surging amid an otherwise down 2026.
- Growth hit levels not seen in years while the company raised guidance on sales and adjusted earnings per share.
- AI and agentic commerce pose both risks and benefits for Visa.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Shares of payment giant Visa (NYSE: V) have been under pressure through much of 2026. By late March, the stock was down more than 15% year-to-date. One contributing factor has been the conflict in Iran, which pushed oil prices higher and prompted economists to trim global growth forecasts—reducing transaction volumes that underpin Visa’s business. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3% to 3.1%. At the same time, concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) and agentic commerce surfaced—some argue that AI-driven commerce, combined with stablecoins, could upend Visa’s traditional payments model.
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Despite those worries, Visa just reported one of its strongest quarters in recent memory, sending the stock up roughly 8.3% after the results. Management also framed AI as an opportunity rather than a threat. Visa Shows Broad-Based Strength in Beat-and-Raise ReportIn its latest quarter, Visa reported revenue of $11.24 billion, up 17.1% year over year. That comfortably beat estimates of $10.74 billion and marked the company’s strongest net sales growth since 2022. When adjusting for post-COVID recovery effects and the Visa Europe acquisition, this represented the company’s best underlying growth since 2013. Performance was strong across Visa’s core metrics. Payments volume rose 9%, including 8% growth in the U.S., each an improvement from 8% and 7% in the prior quarter. Cross-border transactions (excluding intra-European flows) grew 11%. Value-added services (VAS) were a highlight, expanding 27% and accounting for roughly 30% of total revenue. VAS includes products that help banks and merchants reduce fraud and operate more efficiently. Adjusted earnings per share rose 20% year over year to $3.31, beating consensus of $3.10. With the strong results, Visa raised its full-year guidance: it now expects net revenue growth in the low double-digits to low-teens (up from low double-digits previously) and projects low-teens adjusted EPS growth, up from prior guidance of low double-digits. AI and Agentic Commerce: Risk Versus OpportunitySome worry that AI and agentic commerce could disrupt traditional payment networks like Visa. Transaction fees—often 1% to 3% of a purchase—are a core revenue source for the company. If AI agents begin transacting autonomously and favor non-traditional payment methods such as stablecoins, Visa could lose volume or face lower fee capture. At scale, that shift could materially affect Visa’s economics. On the earnings call, Visa argued the opposite: that AI and related technologies will enlarge its addressable market by accelerating the digitization of commerce, shifting more spending away from cash, and boosting overall spending. The company cited third-party estimates that AI could raise global growth by 0.8% to 1.5%, which would lead to more transactions. Visa is positioning to benefit through initiatives like its Intelligent Commerce Connect platform, which enables AI-driven agents to link to its network. The company has not disclosed the fee structure for that platform. Analysts See Solid Upside for the Payments PowerhouseFollowing the earnings report, Visa received several updated price targets. The average of those revisions was about $395, modestly above the MarketBeat consensus near $387, and implying roughly 20% upside from current levels. Visa remains the world’s largest payments network. It is unclear whether AI and agentic commerce will ultimately be a net positive or negative for the business, despite management’s confidence. A broad shift away from traditional payment channels would pose a larger risk to Visa’s model than the near-term disruption suggests. That said, Visa is not ignoring technological change: it is investing in AI to preserve optionality should new transaction channels gain traction. If AI-enabled commerce remains a niche, Visa should continue to benefit from its dominant position. Rapid, widespread adoption would create a different, less certain outcome given the pace of AI innovation. Overall, Visa appears well-positioned today, but investors will be watching how AI reshapes payment rails. The stock currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio near 25x, slightly below its three-year average of about 26.5x. |
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