| DON YOCHAM
Uncomfortable Facts are Setting In
Editor’s Note: Jeffry’s going live at 1:30 to share his 2023 Challenge with you. Click here to join him live.
Just a quick note today.
The past 12 months have given us all plenty of uncomfortable facts to digest.
Facts like:
| | • | | Russia’s war in Ukraine and the very real prospect of open war with NATO | | | • | | China’s growing desire to reunify Taiwan and aggressive posturing towards the U.S. | | | • | | A U.S. political and intelligence machine openly courting confrontation with both Russia and China, driving them to form a Eastern alliance | | | • | | Inflation evolving from “transient” to “persistent”, marking the end of a 40-year deflationary cycle | | | • | | Global central banks scrambling to contain that persistent inflation they spent the last decade-plus stoking | | | • | | And a neck-breaking reversal of globalization, redefining and weaponizing political alliances as rapidly as it’s reconstructing supply lines |
Unfortunately, most people tend to sweep uncomfortable facts like these under the rug.
But just like a Russell terrier with an inferiority complex nips at your heels, uncomfortable realities tend to nip at your conscience, disturbing all attempts to go back to pretending that things will soon return to normal.
And that’s what’s weighing on markets right now.
It’s not just the Fed. It’s not just inflation. It’s a convergence of factors that, together, make it that much harder for investors, institutional and retail alike, to click that buy button and put their capital to work.
The market’s tone has changed from pollyannaish to “forget this.”
And that tone will cut the S&P in half over the next 12 months.
Take What the Markets Give You.
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