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boring trade ideas

 
   
     
In the last few weeks, I’ve talked a lot about how unique this market is because of how many things are net bullish at the same time.

Yesterday, we saw the mirror image of that as the market dropped and pretty much everything went down with it from gold to bitcoin to tech and energy… even bonds.

Today, most of those are moving back in the right direction and we could see new highs in the broad market before the election (in fact, I’m guessing we will even if we got some turbulence along the way).

But I think the most obvious question in this unique market with so many assets that are performing well is “which ones should we focus on?”

And to that obvious question, I will raise you with an obvious answer:

I like the ones that have already been performing well.

If you look at the last 3 months which have been bullish but with a ton of volatility between the August and September drops, here’s what you see:
 
 
Which sectors do you think are at the top?

Well, it’s not communications, tech or consumer discretionary like it was for the first half of 2024.

Utilities takes our #1 spot there in the purple.

And Gold is sitting at #2…

Again, pretty weird, right?

It’d be one thing to see gold at the top of the heap in 2008-2012 when everything else is down…

Same thing in 2001…

Or during the panic in 2018 when gold shot up.

But this has been a monster year for stocks. And, yet, there’s gold…

In fact, if we go back to Jan - current which includes the Nvidia run and the rest Of the hype earlier this year,  gold has still outperformed everything else:
 
So even though it might be boring,  I'm still riding with the assets and the sectors that have performed best.

By the way, one of the things that has performed best in 2024 is… Wait for it… The S&P.

Because the market has gotten a lot broader in terms of its performance like we've talked about,  it has helped the S&P 500 perform really well the second half of the year so far.

Don't get me wrong, the S&P 500 was already performing well the first 6 months of 2024; however, it was largely driven by a handful of mega cap stocks.

What we're seeing over the last several months is a wider distribution of high performance across more stocks which has given the S&P more consistency across the board.

That's also one of the reasons that we trade the SPY directly in my overnight option strategy.

Over time, it's an extremely bullish instrument but it's also very consistent because it's made up of a large number of stocks.

So  there you have it: I am focused on boring stuff right now like gold, utilities and the plain  old S&P.

And I believe all of them offer great potential.

Especially when you use strategies like Overnight Options to target trades just about every day!

Talk Soon,

Nate
   
 
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