You are a free subscriber to Me and the Money Printer. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Capital Wave Report - which features our Red-Green market signals, subscribe here.
Dear Fellow Traveler, Most people think they understand banking… They think they walk into a Chase or PNC location, deposit some money… and the bank holds that money until you come back. That’s not really how modern finance works. Today, we’re going to talk about shadow banking… This is a parallel financial universe that makes traditional banking look like a lemonade stand. And most people have never heard of it. Welcome to the Real MatrixYou know that scene in The Matrix where Morpheus shows Neo the real world? Not the one you and I know - with people walking around the street… The woman in the Red Dress?
That was the simulation… I’m talking about the burning hellscape outside the pods? Shadow banking is Financial Neo's red pill moment. It’s what allows leverage to expand and high interest rates to persist - all while the S&P 500 charges to all-time highs (thus crushing the bears in the process… While you're worried about your bank's checking account fees, there's an entire shadow financial system moving money around the globe at speeds and volumes that would make your head spin. We're talking about a system that by 2010 hit the same size as the traditional banking system. And today… CrossBorder Capital’s Michael Howell puts the Global Shadow monetary base at north of $100 trillion…. That's roughly three times the entire US GDP… Or as I like to call it, 'more fake money than has ever existed in human history.’ Thing is… these shadow banks don’t follow the regulations of your local bank. They don’t deal with FDIC insurance. There's no official Fed backstop. (Wink-wink. We all know who gets saved when this explodes.) They don’t carry any, if any, regulations. It’s just pure, unfiltered financial speculation running on rocket fuel and prayer. So, What the Hell IS Shadow Banking?Before we get to the technical definition… let me say that some financial professionals don’t like the term “shadow banking.” They don’t call it shadow banking anymore because that sounds dangerous (which it is.) They’ve changed the name to “non-bank financial intermediation.” That’s like calling Homicide… "non-traditional life conclusion services…" Or calling armed robbery 'non-consensual wealth redistribution services'." [I’m sure some far-left prosecutor is writing these terms down for future use…] But… Imagine you're at a party, and there's the main bar that everyone can see. That's traditional banking - regulated, insured, boring. But there's also this underground speakeasy in the basement where all the real action happens. No rules, stronger drinks, some drugs in the corner, and if something goes wrong... well, nobody's coming to save you. That's shadow banking. The technical definition? According to former Federal Reserve economist Zoltan Pozsar (yeah, we're going to be hearing a lot from this guy), shadow banking is:
Meanwhile, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) defines shadow banking as “credit intermediation involving entities and activities outside the regular banking system.” There are those words “credit intermediation…” In human terms, shadow banking is a massive machine that takes your money, chops it up, repackages it, leverages it, and spits out "financial products" that fund everything from your mortgage to that corporate bond in your 401(k). Remember all those dangerous leveraged financial instruments that sank the world in 2008? We didn’t stop doing all that shit. There was TOO MUCH money in it. So we did what America always does with dangerous things: we made them bigger, faster, and gave them a different name." We started that by wrapping a bag of crap around the regulatory side called the Dodd-Frank Act that empowered all the big banks, and introduced Basel III, which choked out community banks from the financial system… What emerged was an explosion of Private Credit… anchored in the shadow markets. Basically that… but way more of it… with more leverage… and uncertainty. Isn’t finance great? The Players in This CircusUnlike traditional banking, where you've got banks and... well, banks, shadow banking is like a financial Marvel universe with a cast of characters… They include. Money Market Funds: These are supposed to be "safe" places to park cash. Spoiler alert: they're not banks, and when things go sideways, they break the buck faster than a Vegas blackjack dealer. Repo Markets: Short for "repurchase agreements." Imagine borrowing money overnight using Treasury bonds as collateral. Except it's not just overnight, and it's not just Treasury bonds, and when the music stops... things really go bad. Asset-Backed Securities: Remember 2008? These are the things that blew up the world. Take a bunch of mortgages, throw them in a blender, and sell pieces to pension funds. What could go wrong? We just amplified all of this. There are yacht-backed asset securities now. And cryptocurrency ones are on the way… Because, I guess, we learned from 2008 that the problem wasn't enough leverage on stupid things. Hedge Funds: And, how can we forget the cowboys of finance? They don't take deposits like banks, but they sure as hell borrow like them. Sometimes 30-to-1 leverage. Because why risk your own money when you can risk 30 times someone else's? They’ll tell you that they aren’t that leveraged. But when everything sells at the same time, these are the guys hoping the Fed comes to save them before the counter parties start calling to demand their money back. Investment Banks: These are the puppet masters. They don't hold deposits, but they facilitate all the madness above. And if they have commercial arms linked to them, they aren’t lending money. They’re lining up private capital deals to ensure that none of the real risks are on their books after Basel III. Here's Where It Gets ScaryTraditional banks are like battle tanks. They are slow, heavily armored, and protected by the government. Shadow banks are like Formula 1 race cars. They are fast and efficient, but if they crash, everyone dies. The whole system runs on one giant assumption… It’s the belief that short-term funding will always be available. It's like building a house on quicksand and assuming the ground will never shift. When that assumption breaks - and it always eventually breaks - the entire who knows how many trillion machine seizes up faster than a cheap engine without oil. Remember Bear Stearns? Lehman Brothers? AIG? Those weren't really banks in the traditional sense. They were shadow banks. And when the shadow banking system had its "oh shit" moment in 2008, it didn't just affect Wall Street. It nearly took down the entire global economy. Your 401(k) lost half its value not because traditional banks failed, but because this shadow system - this thing most people had never heard of - imploded. Your money is in this system whether you know it or not. Remember when your parents told you not to get in cars with strangers? Well, congratulations… your retirement fund just climbed into a windowless van driven by a hedge fund manager who snorts ADHD medication that isn’t his prescription... Your money market fund? Shadow banking. Your pension's "safe" government bond investments? Probably financed through repo markets. That corporate bond in your retirement account? Funded by shadow banks. The mortgage on your house? Securitized and sold to shadow bank investors. You're not just a bystander in this system. You're the fuel. Just like in the Matrix. The Beautiful LieThe financial industry loves to tell you that shadow banking "provides liquidity" and "increases efficiency." And you know what? They're not wrong. When it works, shadow banking is like a perfectly tuned engine. Money flows from savers to borrowers faster and more efficiently than any traditional banking system could manage. But when it doesn't work... Well, let's just say the 2008 financial crisis was shadow banking's way of saying "hello" to the general public. But we’ll show you there’s more to it tomorrow… Don’t think about it too much… or your nose will bleed… Tomorrow we'll explain how this beautiful disaster actually works in practice. Spoiler alert: it doesn't. Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
|
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
0 Response to "What the H... is Shadow Banking? (Pt. 1)"
Post a Comment