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Is Newmont Gold a Buy After Its Post-Earnings Drop?
Posted On Oct 25, 2025 by Chris Markoch
Newmont Gold (NYSE: NEM) reported earnings on October 23 after the market closed. The gold miner delivered a double beat. Revenue of $5.52 billion beat estimates of $5.27 billion by about 4.2%. The beat was even stronger on the bottom line. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.71 were more than 18% higher than projections for $1.44.
The concern came in the company's guidance. Newmont's production, while impressive, was less than what it could have been due to lower grades and maintenance issues. That kept the company from taking full advantage of record gold prices.
Furthermore, Newmont expects lower production in the fourth quarter, with higher capital spending expected in 2026. That news sent NEM stock down over 5% the day after the report.
That may be a good reason to take a profit. NEM stock was trading at an all-time high of around $90 per share in a week, during which the spot price of gold dropped about 6%.
However, if you think that it's time for the gold trade to unwind, you might want to think again. The reality is that the opportunity in gold and in mining stocks may be just getting started.
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The Reality Behind Gold's Recent Surge
Gold bugs appear to be having their moment. After decades of not doing much of anything, gold is the belle of the ball in 2025. The most bullish analysts are forecasting a $5,000 spot price by the end of 2025, and more gains to come in 2026.
However, skeptics will say that the movement is being caused by speculation and FOMO instead of fundamentals. Truth be told, many investors have lost money believing "this time it's different."
But what if the current interest in gold isn't about something being different, but something being noticed?
At its core, gold has always been an insurance policy and an inflation hedge. Gold has historically preserved purchasing power over long periods, even as paper currencies have lost value. The whole benefit of gold is that it doesn't change; it just observes.
For years, gold observed while the U.S. dollar's value was eroded by persistent deficit spending and monetary easing. As long as other countries bought our dollars in the form of Treasury bills, everything was (relatively) fine.
However, that's been changing. In recent years, central banks have been buying physical gold at an unprecedented pace. In fact, global central banks have added 415 tons of gold to their reserves in 2025 alone. And, the United States has recently become a net importer of gold — a rare trend that underscores rising domestic demand.
These aren't signs that things are business as usual. They point to the idea that institutional investors view gold as a necessary hedge against the decline in value of the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies. Investors, and more importantly, governments are looking at gold as a reliable monetary asset in a world that's running out of alternatives.
What That Means for Newmont Gold?
Even if you believe in the long-term outlook for gold, custody and insurance risks make owning physical gold unappealing to many investors. However, there are other ways to own gold. One way is through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and another is by owning mining stocks like Newmont.
Like any commodity, mining stocks need commodities to be at a certain price to be profitable. It's fair to say that gold is at that price. That means the issue is now about meeting demand. Gold is not easy to extract, and it takes time to do so.
However, Newmont isn't just one of many gold miners. It's the world's largest gold producer, and it has a balance sheet to back that up.
While it's easy for investors to focus on short-term headwinds, the company delivered for shareholders in several ways. Here are some highlights from its recent earnings presentation:
Generated record third-quarter free cash flow of $1.6 billion.
Retired $2 billion in debt, which puts the company in a near-zero debt position.
Received a credit rating upgrade to A3 from Moody's
Returned $823 million to shareholders through regular dividends and share repurchases.
Newmont Gold: More Than the Yellow Metal
The rally in gold is only the tip of the spear in a larger rally in metals, including silver and copper, both of which are mined by Newmont. While these make up a much smaller part of the company's revenue, the increase in the spot prices for both metals will help Newmont's profitability for years to come.
The Only Thing Different About NEM Stock is the Price
Analysts have been raising their price targets for NEM stock in the weeks prior to the earnings report. Many of those targets are well above the consensus price target of around $90 and the highest comes from Bank of America at $115.
That means the only thing that's really changed after Newmont's earnings report is the stock price, which is now trading at a discount to its consensus price. At around $85, investors will be watching to see if NEM stock holds support. Whether it does or it doesn't, this is an opportunity to take a position or add to a position as the structural case for higher gold prices should keep a high floor on the stock.
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