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Today's editorial pick for you
General Mills Has a Safe Dividend and That May Be Enough
Posted On Dec 23, 2025 by Chris Markoch
There are growth stocks, and there are value stocks. General Mills (NYSE: GIS) falls squarely in the latter camp. The consumer staples giant hasn't just had a difficult year in 2025; it's been trending lower for the last several years.
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That trend is continuing despite the company delivering a double beat in its recent earnings report. Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10 beat expectations by seven cents. And revenue of $4.86 billion was higher than the $4.78 billion that was anticipated.
However, after getting an initial lift after the report, GIS stock is below its price prior to earnings. That might explain why General Mills has a consensus Hold rating from analysts, even with a consensus price target that suggests the stock may have 11% upside.
When you combine that with a dividend yield of over 5% and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 10x, that puts it at a discount to its historic average, you could reach the conclusion that General Mills is an undervalued play for 2026.
It may be, but it's too early to tell. For now, this doesn't look like a stock for growth investors. However, it may be a solid choice for income-seeking investors.
A Stressed Consumer Will Keep a Lid on Revenue
The headline numbers were solid enough for the current quarter. But on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the numbers spotlighted the impact of a stressed consumer. Revenue was down over 7% and earnings were down 21%.
Management also reaffirmed prior guidance for its 2026 fiscal year. That puts net sales between –1 to 1% with adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS down 10% to 15%.
This correlates with the idea of a more "choiceful" consumer, which is a corporate buzzword for saying the consumer is under pressure. That means that a company like General Mills, which generally benefits from solid pricing power, is having to turn to promotions.
That's not expected to change in 2026, which is why the company's quarterly results, while encouraging, aren't inspiring much confidence in investors.
The Dividend Looks Safe
General Mills pays a dividend that currently yields 5.23%. That kind of high yield can be either a value trap or a sign of an opportunity. I'll put it in the opportunity camp. I say this because its payout ratio is around 52%, and its payout based on cash flow is around 46%. Both are healthy numbers, even if the company's margins remain under pressure.
A company such as General Mills, which has been paying a dividend for over 35 years, will be more likely to cut stock buybacks before it takes the step of cutting dividends. That allows income-oriented investors to focus on the $2.44 per share payout they get just for holding GIS stock.
Challenges to the Thesis
Looking at General Mills with a bullish lens, it's not a leap to say that much of the bad news is already being priced in. For example, like many consumer-facing companies, General Mills had to navigate higher cocoa prices in 2025. It's likely to get some relief in 2026, which is not factored into the guidance. Plus, the company is seeing strength in its pet food sector, which is likely to remain solid in 2026.
On the bearish side, General Mills faces uncertainty about how the consumer will hold up in the face of inflation. The clearer and present concern could come from a weaker job market. On the other hand, in a weaker economy, even higher-income consumers are likely to spend more time eating at home.
General Mills Presents More Upside Potential Than Downside Risk
The GIS weekly stock chart shows a neutral trend, but the indicators suggest asymmetrically better upside than downside from here.
Trend and moving averages
Price sits just below the 50-week SMA. After a long slide from the 2023 peak near 90, much of the de-rating is already in the rearview mirror.
The slope of the 50-week average is flattening, signaling sellers are losing momentum even though a clear uptrend has not yet developed.
Bollinger Bands and risk/reward
GIS stock is trading near the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly timeframe, an area that has historically preceded multi-month rebounds for this name.
With the 52-week low only about a dollar below the current price, but the 52-week high over 40% above, the downside appears limited relative to the potential upside if the stock mean-reverts toward the mid-band in the 50s and possibly higher.
A Dividend-First Stock for Patient Investors
General Mills may struggle to excite growth investors, but that doesn't mean the stock lacks appeal. With a well-covered dividend yielding over 5% and a valuation that reflects muted expectations, GIS offers a relatively defensive income opportunity.
While consumer pressure may limit upside in the near term, technical indicators suggest that downside risk is contained. For patient, income-focused investors willing to trade growth for stability, General Mills' dividend alone may be enough to justify holding the stock into 2026.
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