Getting jiggy with the Fed
| | It's Fed day. | And I hope you'll join me and Garrett Baldwin from 2PM-4PM EST for our LIVE Fed coverage. | Everyone is welcome, members and non-members. | CLICK HERE to add the event to your calendar. | You can also CLICK HERE to join the event at 2PM. | But let me give you a preview of what where my head is at. | I'm sitting here on generator power because my island decided to have a power outage for absolutely no reason. | First thing I see when my system comes back up? Some algorithm just carpet-bombed VIX calls. | 6,800 contracts. Gone. Bought to open at the opening bell. | That was enough to spike the VVIX, the measure of option demand on the VIX. | Someone is either hedging something massive or betting volatility is about to explode. There's literally no other reason. | This wasn't retail panic. This was systematic, algorithmic, expensive. The kind of flow that tells you somebody knows something. | The Setup Nobody's Talking About | Eight trading sessions. Same exact range. | The S&P is doing absolutely nothing while everyone's loading up positions like we're trending. Most people think they're trading in autonomy - "I'm trading Broadcom, screw the S&P." That could not be more inaccurate. | When this range breaks, every single trade on your screen moves. Caterpillar hitting new highs? Walmart gamma squeezing? Doesn't matter. When volatility picks up, nothing trades independently. | We started the week with a $100 expected move on the S&P. Still sitting at $82. That's not normal decay. That's the market saying you haven't seen anything yet. | Why Powell Might Not Want to Make Enemies | Fed funds futures at 90-whatever percent for a 25 basis point cut. Everyone knows Powell's cutting rates. | But I was thinking this morning - maybe Powell doesn't want to piss anybody off on his way out. Guy's retiring in May. | A week ago I'm thinking he comes out hawkish. "This is my Fed" - drops the mic, walks off. Now I'm thinking maybe he just wants to get through this without anyone coming after him post-retirement. It's not worth making enemies this far into your career. | That actually makes sense. | Dead Volume Before the Storm | Options volume yesterday was 49 million contracts. Sounds impressive until you realize the 2025 average is 61 million. We're seeing holiday-level volume before the biggest Fed meeting in months. | No hedging activity. No professional flows. Just dead markets. | Except for that VVX buying this morning. Someone's positioning for chaos. | Join Us Live: 2-4 PM Eastern | Garrett and I are going live during the Fed announcement. Main trading room, simulcast for Market Masters. | This isn't post-meeting analysis. This is real-time Fed reaction, real-time trades, real-time chaos as it happens. No delay, no commentary after the fact - live decisions as volatility hits. | The smart money already positioned. The question is whether you're ready for whatever Powell delivers. | 2-4 PM Eastern. Don't miss this one. | Click Here to add the event to your calendar. | To your success, | Don Kaufman | | Defense in context means knowing when 30% is enough — especially when Fed chaos is hours away. | Tomorrow at 1pm EST, Tony's unveiling his Matrix Key that helps you see the forces moving markets so you make portfolio decisions, not just trade decisions. | |
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