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MP Materials Stock Soared After Earnings—Here's the Real Reason
Written by Leo Miller. Published 11/22/2025.
Key Points
- Despite seeing a 15% decline in revenue, MP Materials soared after its Q3 earnings release.
- MP exceeded production guidance, an important step in achieving its long-term objectives.
- The company has made significant progress on its plan to become a vertically integrated producer of permanent magnets.
MP Materials (NYSE: MP) has gone on quite a wild ride over the past month.
Shares peaked at just under $99 on Oct. 14, putting MP up more than 530% year-to-date in 2025.
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But like many high-flying stocks that topped out in mid-October, the move reversed quickly. By Nov. 6, MP was trading around $52, down roughly 47% from its all-time closing high.
Fortunately for shareholders, MP's Q3 2025 earnings helped stem the slide. Below, we'll dig into the key takeaways from the company's results.
MP's 15% Sales Drop Is Part of the Plan
MP reported earnings on Nov. 6 and the financials were solid. MP's revenue came in at approximately $53.6 million, beating estimates despite a 15% year-over-year decline. The company's adjusted loss per share of $0.10 also beat the $0.15 loss analysts expected. Given MP's massive run-up this year, falling revenue would understandably worry investors. But this decline is an expected part of the company's transition.
To comply with its agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), MP stopped all sales of rare-earth concentrates to China. In Q3 2024, the company generated roughly $43 million in revenue from concentrate sales. That revenue went to zero last quarter, materially reducing overall top-line figures. Offsetting that, the company generated $21.9 million from magnetic precursors — a line that had no comparable revenue a year ago — and saw a 61% increase in neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal revenues, which helped blunt the hit from lost concentrate sales.
Generating near-term sales and profits is not MP's primary objective right now. Its main goal is to become a vertically integrated manufacturer of permanent rare-earth magnets, and on that front the company made meaningful progress in Q3.
MP Ramps Production Impressively, Anticipates Q4 Profitability
NdPr oxide and metals are critical inputs for permanent magnets used in many technologies, and China currently dominates roughly 90% of that production. Increasing domestic NdPr output is the main geopolitical rationale behind U.S. support for MP.
Importantly, MP posted record NdPr production of 721 metric tons — a 51% increase that exceeded the high end of its guidance. The company also reported its second-highest-ever rare-earth oxide (REO) production of 13,254 metric tons. Effectively scaling production of these materials is central to MP's vertical-integration strategy, and Q3 results showed clear progress.
MP also advanced other initiatives to support that goal. It installed key equipment at its Independence facility and expects to start producing finished magnets there at scale by year-end. General Motors (NYSE: GM) will be an initial buyer, with revenue from those sales expected to ramp in the second half of 2026. Recycling-based magnet production for a tech giant — Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) — is expected to follow.
MP also expects its heavy-rare-earth production system to come online in mid-2026, which would allow the United States to produce heavy rare earths at scale for the first time in decades.
While near-term profitability has not been the company's primary focus, MP expects to achieve it soon. As part of its agreement with the DoD, the government has guaranteed that MP will receive at least $110 per kilogram (kg) of NdPr oxide, a pricing mechanism that took effect on Oct. 1. MP believes this floor will enable the company to be profitable in Q4 and beyond by providing downside protection if market NdPr prices decline. Notably, the $110/kg floor is about 86% above the $59/kg MP realized in Q3.
Analysts Remain Optimistic, But Don't Dismiss MP's October Slide
Overall, the quarter progressed largely as planned, and the stock reacted. Shares rose nearly 23% over the two trading days after the report and are up about 22% since the earnings release. News of MP and the DoD's joint venture with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company helped push the stock up more than 8% on Nov. 19 after several down days.
Wall Street analysts still see upside in MP shares. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $79 implies roughly 24% upside. The average of price targets updated after the company's earnings is just under $76, implying about 19% upside. That said, MP's recent trading history shows the stock can move sharply in either direction, so investors should take a risk-aware approach when considering MP Materials stock.
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