Everyone, Everywhere About to Be a Copper Expert...With China pumping and AI demand surging... copper will see more speculation in the months ahead.
Good morning, Copper is getting all the headlines again… And the catalyst isn’t just industrial demand or another AI headline. It’s China. Beijing has quietly shifted from “piecemeal support” to what increasingly looks like a coordinated stimulus push. We’re seeing liquidity injections, targeted credit lines for manufacturers, property-market stabilization measures, and renewed support for grid expansion. Oh… and now a big repo activity as well… None of this is being branded as a big-bang stimulus package. What matters is that the outcomes are similar. China is easing the pressure on the world’s largest consumer of copper at the exact moment global demand is accelerating. AI infrastructure, defense spending, electrification, and grid upgrades are all converging on the same chokepoint… Copper supply is tight, structural, and not easily fixed. Mine development timelines are measured in decades, not quarters. Meanwhile, S&P Global’s latest forecast calls for copper demand to rise 50% by 2040, with data centers, EVs, and grid modernization taking a much larger share of global consumption. It probably won’t be that high… but it’s high enough. And that’s the issue. Copper is in everything, and its rise if inflationary at the least. Here’s your story… China is stimulating. The West is electrifying. AI is scaling. Copper is the bridge between all of it. Our outlook for copper has been bullish since our Hedge of Tomorrow report in March 2024. And there’s structurally bullish sentiment that remains. A market that already can’t meet today’s needs is now staring at a coordinated global push for more metal in every major growth sector. Copper wants higher prices because the world is running out of cheap supply. And this is exactly why we’ve been long Mueller Industries (MLI) since our Hedge of Tomorrow report back in March 2024. It remains one of the cleanest, most rational ways to play U.S. copper demand, domestic manufacturing, and grid-related buildout. Nothing has changed our conviction. If anything, the macro tailwinds are finally lining up. Copper isn’t a commodity story anymore… It’s the backbone of the next decade. Scott and I will take a step back in February and put together our next Hedge of Tomorrow report (Hedge of Tomorrow Two, Electric Boogaloo) for early March release. That’s the type of report that takes time, since we have to assess monetary policy conditions and determine whether this administration will allow any pullback in liquidity or if some of these programs (as Michael Burry has suggested) are permanent. More on that soon… Traders FocusAs I noted on-air and in print, our momentum readings saw their biggest stretch over the past six months, back to October 27, 2025. When we’re that stretched, it's that strong buying pressure that starts to fade… everything feels overbought…... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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