In Today’s Masters in Trading: Live Markets don’t move on facts. They move on the first story people believe. That’s always been true. But over the past year, a new force has started to amplify that effect — prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. For those who don’t know, prediction markets allow well-capitalized traders to place bets on any outcome they desire – whether it’s a key policy move, an election, or any other scenario you can imagine with high stakes. These markets don’t wait for headlines. They handicap outcomes before the news breaks. And that matters more than most traders realize. Earlier this week, I walked you through the race for the next Fed governor. After President Trump said he preferred to keep Kevin Hassett in his current role as chief economic advisor, traders on Kalshi quickly shifted their bets — pushing the odds toward another candidate for the job, Kevin Warsh, to 60%. That happened before markets ever repriced the implications. And this same dynamic has been throwing the broader markets off center over the last 12 months. Throughout 2025, tariff-driven “news bombs” triggered violent selloffs across the market — semiconductors, materials, industrials. The headlines changed overnight. Prices followed immediately. And you better believe betting markets like Kalshi lit up with trading volume following each new development. That’s the shift we’re living through now. Historically, traders waited for news to move markets. Today, probability is being priced in advance — publicly, transparently, and in real time. Now, this isn’t so different from what we do here at Masters in Trading. Options already price probability. Vertical spreads. Put credit spreads. All of them are expressions of belief versus fear. Prediction markets are doing the same thing — just without charts or Greeks. It’s the same math. Just a different delivery system. The key advantage for us? It’s all in how we use the information prediction markets hand us. We’re not trying to predict elections or policy decisions. And we’re certainly not betting on outcomes. We use prediction markets as an early signal. When belief shifts — but price and volatility haven’t caught up yet — that gap becomes actionable information. And that’s where opportunity lives. So join me for Masters in Trading LIVE today at 11 AM EST, where I’ll show you how we use prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket as a forward-looking tool — and how to translate that information into disciplined, defined-risk options trades. P.S. Are you a member of The Masters in Trading Challenge? Make sure you join me today at 2PM EST for my next Q&A session. It’s the perfect opportunity to ask me anything you want about my strategy – and learn the biggest trade ideas I’m watching right now. Just check for the link to join on Discord or find it in your inbox later today. Interested in joining me in the Challenge? Just click here to find out everything about that’s waiting for you. 
 | Got a Question? | Be sure to join me live on YouTube and ask me anything. It’s a great way to connect directly with our trading community and make sure you’re getting the insights you need to help build a deeper understanding of the markets. Remember, the creative trader wins, | 
0 Response to "Kalshi and Polymarket: Why Prediction Markets Are Our New Early-Warning System"
Post a Comment