Maduro Wasn't On My Bingo Card. But I'll Take The 12.6% Anyway.

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"I positioned us in DFEN while everyone was still chasing chips. My thesis was simple: if the government wants to dominate AI-powered defense, it needs private sector speed with public sector scale."

Bryan Bottarelli, Head Trade Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Bryan Bottarelli

Back in October, I told you defense and aerospace were the next sector to take off.

Look, I didn't see Maduro getting yanked out of his palace by special forces and flown to New York - that wasn't on my Q4 bingo card.

But hey, better lucky than good sometimes, right?

I positioned us in DFEN at the start of Q4 while everyone was still chasing chips and materials. My thesis was way simpler than all these analyst reports: if the government wants to dominate AI-powered defense and space, it needs private sector speed with public sector scale.

Closed the position January 5th for a 12.6% return. Not bad for a few months' work.

But here's the thing - and this is critical for how you trade leveraged ETFs - Venezuela was just the catalyst I needed to take profits. The thesis hasn't changed. If anything, it's gotten stronger.

The Numbers Keep Getting Bigger

Global military spending hit $2.7 trillion in 2024 and analysts are projecting $3.6 trillion by 2030. The U.S. defense budget is pushing toward $1 trillion for FY2026 - that's a 13% increase. NATO allies are committing to 3.5-5% of GDP targets by 2035, with Europe leading the charge.

Here's what most people miss - this isn't your typical defense spending cycle. R&D budgets are up 27% to $179 billion. We're talking about a complete shift to tech-driven warfare: drones, hypersonics, AI-enabled systems, collaborative combat aircraft. The stuff that requires private sector innovation.

DFEN gives me 3X exposure to RTX, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing - all the companies building this next-generation arsenal. These guys are sitting on multi-year backlogs with visibility stretching years ahead.

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How You Trade 3X Leverage Without Getting Chopped Up

This is where people screw up with leveraged ETFs. When you get a 12.6% pop from a geopolitical event, you take it. Period. 3X leverage works both ways - it amplifies your gains when you're right, but it'll chop you up if you get greedy and hold through the volatility.

My strategy with DFEN has always been rinse and repeat: position for the structural trends, take profits when catalysts deliver the pop, then reload on pullbacks. Because the catalysts keep coming.

Ukraine's still grinding through munitions faster than they can be replenished. China's getting more aggressive in the Indo-Pacific. The Middle East never stays quiet for long. And now we've got direct U.S. military operations in South America. Each situation drives the same demand - advanced defense systems.

Your Action Plan

I'm watching for DFEN to pull back so I can reload with April, May, or June calls. Because everything that made me bullish in Q4 has only accelerated.

Record defense spending commitments from allies, multi-year modernization cycles just getting started, supply chain replenishment needs from Ukraine aid, tech shift requiring massive R&D investment, persistent global tensions creating continuous demand.

The defense super-cycle I positioned for in October? We're still in the early innings. The Venezuela operation just proved how quickly geopolitical events can trigger these moves.

That's why you trade DFEN with discipline - capture the pops, avoid the chop, and reload when the setup is right. Because I'm pretty sure at some point, something else will boil over. It always does.

The thesis is stronger than ever. Time to get positioned for the next cycle.

And if you want to follow along, check us out at our Catalyst Cashouts Live.

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