Editor’s Note: This is an email that I just sent to our paid subscribers here at Me and the Money Printer. I’ll be shooting a video for our readers this weekend on how to manage market downturns. Be sure to check us out… And join for the best deal yet. Good morning: I just want to shoot you another quick message today… I’m doing so JUST… because I’ve seen this movie before, and I don’t want anyone to have any false confidence. Back on January 9, I noted that we had the strongest momentum conditions since the selloff commenced in late October, based on a six-month trailing average. While President Trump called off tariffs over Greenland… and Japan held rates, the momentum from the rebound has largely stalled for now. Our intraday signal has been negative, and our weekly readings are now moving back to equilibrium… All while the market holds above key support levels. The SPY is trying to hold its 20-day and 8-day EMA levels. But look hard at that orange line… and the trajectory of other moving averages. If this starts to turn, technical focus turns to stability.
And… recall that we’re still waiting for this Supreme Court decision on tariffs. This really hinges on momentum’s ability to persist. As I outlined in previous explorations on momentum… It’s NOT about predicting movements. It’s about predicting and using data to assess the probabilities of reversals. Because reversals set the tone for the next channel of performance. I’m always looking for higher highs and higher lows… or the destabilizing feeling for markets of lower lows and lower highs. I’ll be honest… I’m starting to prefer the latter as a trader (not as an investor), because the mechanics are so different and hard for retail to achieve. While we need a healthier downturn and compression in valuations over time… how we get there is very different than what most investors anticipate. I’ll be putting together a video this weekend for members of the Capital Wave Report on what to expect when the time is right. We will revisit the 2022 selloff and show you how to be a contrarian when fear reaches an absolute. The FNGD and the FAZ are still above their 20-day and 50-day EMAs… and the market is laughing at Japan right now… which means we might wake up one morning to another multi-sigma event. Finally… let me stress something. We have a serious weather event coming next week. I at one point wanted to be a meteorologist (it’s all math and standing in front of a green screen… what changed.) This is a serious storm. I’ve been reading models for a few days, and I see that this is going to hammer ice across the Southeast and lots of snow for the Northeast. Yeah, it could be bluster… but let’s be honest. It’s probably going to be the worst storm we’ve seen since the early 1990s. Please plan for disruptions. Please assume that if you are in this area of the nation, your power will go out. And please act as you may very well see disruptions to communications for a few days, as some suggest areas in the south might lose power for a week. First, be safe. Second, your money is still on the line. I’m not telling you to sell everything. I’m not telling you to panic. We MUST take precautions and ensure we retain control of our money in the event of disruption. If you want to sell any stocks… consider this. Don’t just dump stocks. What if you sold in-the-money calls on every 100 shares you have? What if you smartly exist by taking what the market gives you instead of just moving to cash? Do you have any stocks that you’re up on the year, but you’re at month 10 of the capital gains cycle? Consider selling calls out two or three months that are deeper in the money… This all aligns with the insights I’ve discussed on managing positions and assessing why you own something. Despite all this stimulus and support… this market is still under pressure. And now we add the headache of a possible generational storm. The markets will be open on Monday… and we might see lighter volume… but we still have to manage our money. Again… don’t panic. But take some time today to reassess your portfolio. I own a stock that I’m not sure why I have in Ingles Market (IMKTA). It’s up over the last year, but I’m not gonna sell and take the short-term capital gains hit. I didn’t sell it… I just sold an ITM, the $65 call (with a breakeven at $74.50), to exit the stock and reach the 20% capital gains level, and now whatever the hell this nation is going to make me pay in 2026. All right… I’ve rambled enough… Join us… and get updates on managing a down cycle… I will figure out how to get content to you on Monday… it might be shorter, and I might be doing it on my phone. But dammit… the show must go on. Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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