Why a Spread? This debit spread caps risk while offering up to $66 in potential profit if the S&P 500 sees a significant correction. As we discussed during the event, this spread will return higher profits IF the S&P 500 sees a correction earlier in the year compared to later due to time premium decay. Here's the exact moment during the stream that Karim gave everyone the trade details Here's What You Didn't Hear During the Market Outlook Event… The AI Trade Has Quietly Shifted: Memory Is Now the Bottleneck. Over the last two years, everyone has learned to use the word "compute". Seriously, this was once a word that was reserved for the nerds – like me – out there. Frankly, I'm getting tired of hearing the words at cocktail parties and hockey games. And yes, you can hear it at a Pittsburgh Penguins game if you listen closely enough. Up to now, we've heard about how compute relied on everything from Nvidia chips to data center buildouts, cooling systems, and energy grid strain. But there's a simpler piece to this equation. One that just popped its head up a few weeks ago. "Memory" The unglamorous, often-overlooked accessory that used to be stuffed into your camera or USB drive has suddenly become one of the most critical - and constrained - components in the AI supply chain. Heck, I just looked… I have three SD Micro memory cards sitting in my top desk drawer that I haven't touched in more than a year! But that won't help the AI bottleneck we're seeing. Here's Why This Should Matter to You In 2026, there won't be enough memory to meet global demand. The high-powered chips built by Nvidia, AMD, and Google now require enormous amounts of high-bandwidth RAM. The more AI models scale, the more memory they consume. As a result, DRAM prices are expected to surge over 50% in Q1 2026, according to industry sources. That kind of pricing pressure isn't just a signal… it's a flashing green light for investors. The shortage is now creating pain for hardware makers. Wall Street analysts are already pressing Apple, Dell Technologies, and other electronics manufacturers to explain how they'll handle the memory shortage. Will they raise prices? Will margins shrink? Either way, it's bullish for the few companies who dominate this space. The Real Trade: A Small Group of Memory Leaders This shift in the AI trade moves capital into a relatively uncrowded corner of the market—the DRAM triopoly. There are three primary vendors in the world that make high-performance computer memory: - Micron Technology (MU)
- SK Hynix
- Samsung Electronics
That's it. These three players make up nearly the entire RAM market, and their businesses are now benefitting from a rare mix of constrained supply and explosive end-market demand. Two of the three don't trade on the U.S. exchanges. That's right, Micron is the only of the three that you can easily purchase here in the U.S. as it trades on the Nasdaq Exchange under the ticker symbol MU. Shares of Micron are already 18% higher for 2026 and are showing signs of being overbought. This means that for now I'm personally waiting for a regression to the mean (another term Karim talks about during the 2026 Outlook session). My ideal situation would see the stock experience a short-term correction to $300. Look at the chart below. November was a drop to the round-numbered $200 price, at which point the stock turned into a screaming BUY ahead of its fast and aggressive rally to $300 over the following 27 trading days. That's the kind of move I'm waiting for from one of the memory solutions for the AI "compute" bottleneck. I'll break this story down during the next Monument Trader's Alliance LIVE session, but with everything else we had to cover, time simply ran out. Your Action Plan Whether you're chasing AI alpha or just trying to protect what you've already built, 2026 isn't the year to leave trades on autopilot. Volatility is coming back. The crowd is mispositioned. And the edge belongs to those who can pivot before the headlines do. We've got you covered here at Monument Trader's Alliance. And don't forget to check out our new YouTube channel here. | 
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