Big Tech Will Pull the Stock Market Down

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Big Tech Will Pull the Stock Market Down

By Larry Benedict, editor, Trading With Larry Benedict

Manufacturing data this week caught markets by surprise.

The manufacturing sector has been in contraction mode for much of the past three-and-a-half years. Yet data on Monday from the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January showed the sector is expanding again.

Its 52.6 reading was its highest reading since August 2022. (Above 50 represents expansion; below 50 is contraction.) This was well above December’s 47.9 reading.

Then on Wednesday, ISM data showed that the Services sector continues to track along at a healthy clip. January’s 53.8 print matched December’s reading and was its highest reading since December 2024.

This is still well below the giddy heights during the pandemic (Services PMI topped out at 67.6 points in November 2021). But it all points to an economy in good shape. Gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q3 2025 showed the economy is growing at 4.4%.

But these numbers are running headlong into expectations for future interest rate cuts… and that could be setting the stock market up for some tough action ahead…

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Kevin Warsh: No Pushover?

No one expected a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s January meeting. But some thought that the Fed would cut at its next meeting in March.

That March meeting is still 40 days away. But rate cut odds are steadily sinking. Markets are factoring in a 90% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in March.

Those odds don’t surprise me. I suspect the Fed will sit still on rates while Jerome Powell remains at the helm. (He finishes his term in May.)

Some people expected President Trump to nominate a dovish chair to replace Powell. Yet Kevin Warsh has a reputation for wanting to tightly control inflation and the Fed’s balance sheet.

Time will tell. But he may not be a pushover when it comes to cutting rates…

Beyond all that, progress on inflation has stalled above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is tracking at 2.7%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is tracking at 2.8%, having bottomed out at 2.6% back in April last year.

And this all has implications for the markets…

Tune in to Trading With Larry Live

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Each week, Market Wizard Larry Benedict goes live to share his thoughts on what’s impacting the markets. Whether you’re a novice or expert trader, you won’t want to miss Larry’s insights and analysis. Even better, it’s free to watch.

Simply visit us on YouTube at 8:30 a.m. ET, Monday through Thursday, to catch the latest.

Oversized Weightings

Big Tech and the artificial intelligence (AI) hype have been the engine room of the more than three-year rally, especially when markets went almost parabolic off their April 2025 lows.

But anyone invested in this trend probably wishes they’d sold in October. Market dynamics have dramatically changed since then.

One of the poster children of the AI rally, Palantir (PLTR), recently broke down sharply through its 200-day moving average – a clear bearish signal. And Nvidia (NVDA), another key AI protagonist, is on the verge of testing its 200-day MA too.

Meta Platforms (META) recently broke that same level too, and Tesla (TSLA) is looking shaky.

The big loser is Microsoft (MSFT), which fell through its 200-day MA almost a month ago. It is barely above where it was in April last year – right before the rally began.

With all that weighing down the market, it’s going to be hard for the major indexes to rally, given the combined trillions of market cap of these mega tech stocks and their weightings in the indexes.

And if rate cuts stay on hold or rates even go higher if inflation begins to pick up speed… That would be a problem for the AI theme. Growth stocks typically do better when rates are falling and worse when they rise.

Without these mega-cap tech stocks firing up again, I can’t see how the major indexes can sustain a move higher in 2026. I still believe the indexes will finish this year in the red.

So if you haven’t taken profits yet, you might want to do so sooner rather than later.

Happy Trading,

Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict

Free Trading Resources

Have you checked out Larry’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just click here to check it out.

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