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Wednesday's Exclusive Article

ServiceNow's Massive Fall: Analysts Eye +70% Gains Amid AI Risks

Submitted by Leo Miller. Article Published: 2/10/2026.

Key Takeaways

Investors have recently crushed shares of software giant ServiceNow, like many names in its industry.
However, the firm's 2025 results and 2026 guidance did not show many signs of weakness.
While the company's AI tools are gaining steam, the technology could also pose a structural risk to NOW's long-term growth.

So far, 2026 has been a rough year for software stocks. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (BATS: IGV) is a good proxy for the sector's performance. As of the Feb. 9 close, the fund was down nearly 20% year-to-date.

That steep decline reflects market concerns about the wave of new artificial intelligence (AI) development tools. The thinking is that if software becomes easier and cheaper to build with AI, incumbent vendors could face meaningful competitive pressure. But investors appear to be selling broadly across software, often without regard to the real risks each company faces.

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Broad, indiscriminate sell-offs can create buying opportunities to acquire top-tier stocks at discounted prices. One software behemoth worth a closer look is ServiceNow.

Despite strong results, ServiceNow's stock had fallen roughly 55% from its all-time high by the second week of February. Below we break down the positives and negatives for ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) and offer an updated take on the tech stock.

ServiceNow: 2025 and 2026 Numbers Paint an Impressive Picture

ServiceNow delivered strong financial results in 2025. Revenue rose 21%, adjusted operating margin increased by more than 150 basis points to above 31%, and free cash flow grew 34%, with a free cash flow margin of 34.5% — an expansion of over 300 basis points versus 2024.

The company's 2026 outlook is solid as well. It expects subscription revenue growth between 19.5% and 20%, which includes about a 1% contribution from its Moveworks acquisition — implying core growth of roughly 18.5%–20%. While that represents a deceleration from prior years, it remains robust.

ServiceNow also expects operating and free cash flow margins to expand to about 32% and 36%, respectively, helped in part by using AI internally to drive efficiency. The annual contract value (ACV) for Now Assist — ServiceNow's AI agent — doubled in Q4 to $600 million, and the company is targeting over $1 billion in Now Assist ACV in 2026. Overall, the numbers point to near-20% growth plus margin expansion.

AI Is a Double-Edged Sword for NOW

Reading between the lines, though, reveals some risks. ServiceNow expects growth to decelerate even as Now Assist ramps — highlighting a central debate about software incumbents in an AI world. The concern isn't that AI will immediately replace ServiceNow's products: the platform is deeply embedded in customer operations, so outright replacement risk is limited in the near term.

Instead, ServiceNow's revenue growth historically comes from customers adding employees or "seats" to their subscriptions. Ironically, AI's biggest benefit to customers may be enabling the same or greater output with fewer people. If AI reduces headcount growth or allows companies to operate with fewer employees, ServiceNow's seat-based model could face a structural growth headwind.

ServiceNow is shifting toward more consumption-based pricing — for example, charging when an AI agent completes a task. While this can align revenue with usage, it tends to be less predictable and, when driven by AI, increases variable costs such as inference fees. Those added costs could put pressure on long-term margins.

Another risk is that new AI tool launches are likely to continue, and market reactions to releases alone have recently been enough to drag down software stocks.

Wall Street Sees Significant Upside in NOW

Wall Street remains bullish on ServiceNow. The consensus price target near $193 implies roughly 86% upside from current levels. The average of targets updated after the company's latest earnings report is slightly lower, near $182, which still implies about 75% upside.

Those concerns about AI and pricing model shifts are real, but the market's current valuation looks overly pessimistic to many investors. That creates a potential long-term opportunity.

However, additional AI product releases could continue to pressure ServiceNow shares until the company convinces the market that those releases won't meaningfully undermine its growth or margins.

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