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Defense Behemoths: Winners and Loser During Q4 Earnings Cycle
Written by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 2/2/2026.
Quick Look
- Defense stocks soared in 2025, and many of the industry's biggest players just reported their year-end results.
- Northrop Grumman and RTX gained positive reactions from their releases, with shares and price targets rising.
- Despite shares falling, analysts are still optimistic on General Dynamics.
A plethora of defense giants just reported their Q4 2025 earnings. The cycle produced some standout performances and a few results that left investors wanting more. Here are the most notable winners and losers from the latest round of defense earnings.
Winner: Northrop Grumman Sees Growth Accelerating in 2026
U.S. defense behemoth Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) was a clear winner in its latest earnings report. Northrop is particularly known for building stealth bombers such as the B-2 Spirit. The company posted strong Q4 2025 earnings, released before the market's open on Jan. 27. Revenue came in at $11.7 billion, up almost 10% and beating estimates by more than $100 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose about 13% to $7.23, comfortably above estimates of $6.97.
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See the under-the-radar play fueling AI data centersIn a positive sign for its outlook, Northrop expects revenue to grow in the mid-single-digit range in 2026. That would be a notable acceleration from 2025, when sales grew by roughly 2% for the full year.
Northrop's results sparked optimism among investors and Wall Street analysts. Shares rose 2.7% on Jan. 27, and several analysts raised their forecasts substantially.
The consensus price target on Northrop sits close to $689, near its Jan. 30 closing price. However, price targets published after the earnings release average about $762, implying meaningful upside of roughly 10%.
Winner: RTX Gains, Backlog Hits Record High
RTX (NYSE: RTX) also fared well in Q4 2025. Sales rose 12% to $24.2 billion, exceeding estimates by about $1.6 billion. Adjusted EPS was essentially flat at $1.55 (up less than 1%), which was better than the $1.47 analysts had expected — a figure that would have represented an approximate 5% decline.
While RTX expects sales growth to moderate in 2026, it anticipates solid free cash flow growth of around 8% at the midpoint of guidance. RTX's record backlog of $268 billion also supports its outlook, offering strong revenue visibility for the coming years. That backlog is roughly three times its 2025 sales.
Although RTX is a major defense contractor, it also operates in the commercial aviation market. The company expects commercial aircraft production to continue growing in 2026, supporting both its Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney businesses.
Overall, RTX shares rose about 3.7% on the day of its Jan. 27 pre-market release.
The current consensus price target for RTX is near $199, implying roughly 1% downside. However, several analysts updated their targets after the earnings report; those revisions average about $223, implying roughly 11% upside.
Loser: General Dynamics Falls on Guidance, But Analysts Still See Solid Upside
On the other side of the coin, markets reacted unfavorably to General Dynamics' (NYSE: GD) Q4 2025 results. Shares closed down 2.7% on the day of the company's Jan. 28 release, which was posted during market hours.
General Dynamics operates in areas many other aerospace and defense companies do not, including the manufacture and servicing of Gulfstream private jets and the construction of nuclear submarines.
The company's revenue grew 8% in the quarter to $14.4 billion, beating estimates of about $13.8 billion. EPS rose less than 1% to $4.17, topping expectations of $4.11 (which had implied roughly a 1% decline).
The company's guidance implies roughly 4% revenue growth in 2026, a marked deceleration from the 10% growth it saw in 2025.
It also expects EPS growth to moderate to about 4% from 13% last year. Still, General Dynamics exited the year with a record backlog of $118 billion — more than double its 2025 revenue.
The company guided Aerospace operating margins near 14% for 2026, which falls short of its longer-term "high teens" target. Overall, the somewhat conservative guidance appears to have driven the market's negative reaction.
The consensus price target on General Dynamics sits near $372, implying about 6% upside. Despite the stock's decline, analysts issued higher targets after the results; those updated targets average roughly $403, suggesting about 15% upside.
Defense Industry Eyes Catalyst in Potential Gov't Spending Boost
Looking ahead, the defense industry could receive a significant tailwind if the U.S. government increases defense spending. President Trump has proposed raising defense spending to $1.5 trillion in the next fiscal year, which would represent a 66% increase over the prior budget. That proposal would require congressional approval and is far from guaranteed.
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