I'm 90% cash. But NVIDIA could change everything tomorrow.
| | You know what's driving me crazy right now? | Everyone's positioning for the exact wrong outcome with NVIDIA earnings tomorrow. I'm seeing all this chatter about "blow off top then pullback" - like we're due for some massive spike higher before the real correction begins. | But here's what nobody's talking about: The NASDAQ hasn't hit a new all-time high since October. | Think about that for a second. We're talking four months - FOUR MONTHS - of no new highs in the NASDAQ. While everyone's been waiting for that explosive move up followed by the big crash, the market's been doing something completely different. It's been correcting through time, not price. | This is the literal definition of base building. | The market not breaking out OR breaking down for four months? That's consolidation. That's the market digesting gains and building a foundation. | But tomorrow changes everything. | The Setup Everyone's Missing | I'm sitting here 90% cash right now - have been for about a month. But I'm ready to pivot on a dime because NVIDIA could spoil the party for bears in a big way. | Look, this isn't just another earnings report. NVIDIA is the most important company in the entire market. It's the elephant in the room that we cannot ignore. The range is incredibly narrow right now - a big move is coming in one direction or the other. | If NVIDIA blows it out of the water tomorrow and we get that explosive rally to $230, I think the bears are just gonna go back to hibernation. It's over. We've satisfied the time requirements for that reset in stocks, and there's gonna be a lot of denial about it. | That denial? That's exactly what the market needs to go higher. | The Technical Picture Nobody's Seeing | From a timing standpoint, we're in the window where you could have that launchpad, explosive rally higher that catches a lot of people off guard. | The semiconductor index is on the verge of its highest daily close in history. If we don't see some real selling into today's close, especially in tech, especially in chips, well... NVIDIA could be the catalyst that changes everything. | And here's what's really interesting - the PE of the Magnificent Seven is back to levels not seen since 2016. | We're talking about a decade, maybe nine or ten years. The Mag Seven has not been this cheap relative to the S&P 500. | The setup is there. The timing is there. The valuation story is there. | What I'm Watching Tomorrow | Look, I still think there are some short-term risks. From a timing standpoint, we've satisfied the requirements for a bottom, but I just need confirmation from price. That's why I'm still mostly cash. | But if NVIDIA delivers tomorrow and we get that explosive move, that's probably it. The best buying opportunity of 2026 might be right now, and we haven't missed it yet. | Even if the market has bottomed, what are we - a percent off the lows? Don't engage in FOMO or fear of missing out. But also don't ignore what the market is trying to tell you. | The burden is on the bears right now. They need to step up and let the market know they're still present, they're still selling, and there are still downside risks. | But if they can't deliver that selling pressure, especially with NVIDIA potentially providing the catalyst tomorrow... well, there's gonna be a lot of denial about what comes next. And that denial is exactly the fuel this market needs to go a lot higher than most people expect. | The $2 trillion timing question isn't whether NVIDIA will beat earnings. It's whether the market is finally ready to stop correcting through time and start moving through price again. | Tomorrow, we find out. | If you want to find out how I'll be positioned, you can find me in the TheoTrade Chatroom. | Till then, | Gianni Di Poce | |
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